Cut in Ukraine grain forecast

Ukraine's UkrAgroConsult agriculture constancy revised sharply downwards its 2007 grain crop forecast by 11.5 percent to 33 million tonnes from a previous outlook of 37.4 million due to severe drought.
"There has been almost no rainfall in southern Ukraine. The productive moisture content at the plough soil layer decreased to 0-5 mm in most districts of central and southern regions," UkrAgroConsult said in a statement.
"With dry air dominating that part of Ukraine, this has acutely worsened growing conditions for all crops." The constancy also cut Ukraine's wheat crop forecast for the 2007 to 15.327 million tonnes from the previous 17.698 million.
It reduced the barley harvest outlook to 8.550 million tonnes as of June 1 from 10.27 million a month. UkrAgroConsult revised down the 2007 crop estimates for all grain commodities and reduced average grain yield to 2.31 tonnes per hectares from the previous 2.6 tonnes.
It said Ukraine harvested 35.13 million tonnes of grain with an average yield of 2.51 tonnes per hectare in 2006. Last week, APK-Inform agricultural constancy said Ukraine was likely to harvest 33.3 million tonnes in 2007. It forecast the wheat harvest at 14.1 million with barley at 10.7 million.
Weather forecasters told a grain conference in Odessa last week that drought in southern, eastern and central regions could reduce the 2007 winter wheat harvest to between 10 and 12.5 million tonnes from about 14 million in 2006. Winter wheat accounts for more than 90 percent of Ukraine's total wheat production and analysts said a fall in wheat production could prompt the government to impose new export limits for the 2007/08 season.
Forecasters said on Thursday that recent rains in some central and western regions had improved conditions for late grains. Other areas were still suffering from drought. "There has been some rainfall in central regions. Temperatures have dropped and conditions have improved. Precipitation has been uneven, but in sufficient quantities," Tatiana Adamenko, a top weather forecaster, told Reuters.
"As for southern regions, matters remain very serious. There is still no moisture. The situation is deteriorating. In central regions, conditions are normal for late grains, but for early grains (wheat), things are poor."