Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed lower on Wednesday in a technical setback after contract highs were hit Tuesday on worries about tight global wheat supplies, traders said. Drought in Ukraine and recent excess rains in the US Plains hard red winter wheat region remained supportive.
But the wheat market was viewed as technically overbought and due for a correction following a two-week rally that culminated with Tuesday's highs. "I think you've got some profit-taking, most prominently in wheat and soybeans. You shook out some of the soft-handed longs," one CBOT trader said. CBOT July wheat ended down 7-1/2 cents at $5.19-3/4 per bushel. September was down 8-3/4 at $5.34-1/2 and December fell 7 cents at $5.47-1/2.
Funds sold 4,000 to 5,000 contracts, traders said. Deutsche Bank was an active bear-spreader, rolling 1,000 July contracts forward to July 2008. Intermarket spreading was also featured, with firms unwinding long Chicago/short Kansas City wheat spreads.
Overall volume was moderate, estimated by the CBOT at 67,088 wheat futures and 14,075 options. CBOT wheat followed the trend in the French wheat market, which turned lower after rising to a 3-1/2-year high earlier Wednesday on world supply issues.
Additional pressure stemmed from an increased estimate of China's winter wheat crop. In a monthly report, the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre forecast that winter wheat production would rise 0.3 percent in 2007 to 99.6 million tonnes. A previous forecast had called for a decline.
Hotter, drier weather was improving harvest conditions in the US Plains hard red winter wheat belt but more showers, and more potential harvest delays, were possible by the weekend, forecaster DTN Meteorlogix said.
There was little export news other than Japan saying it planned to buy 100,000 tonnes of US, Canadian and Australian wheat at its regular weekly tender on Thursday.
The USDA was scheduled to release its weekly export sales report on Thursday, and traders were expecting US wheat sales of 300,000 to 400,000 tonnes (old and new crop years combined). The spot July contract stayed above all key moving averages. Its nine-day relative strength index was 70 ahead of the open and fell to 62 by the close. Chart-based traders view an RSI of 70 or higher as one indication of an overbought market.
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