Economists raise Singapore growth forecast

Economists surveyed by Singapore's de facto central bank have revised upwards their yearly growth forecast for the city-state. The median forecast for 2007 gross domestic product growth has been raised to 6.0 percent from 5.4 percent, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said in its report on the survey of 16 economists and analysts.
Their revised forecast comes after the Ministry of Trade and Industry last month upgraded its own 2007 GDP growth forecast to 5.0-7.0 percent from 4.5-6.5 percent, following first-quarter expansion of 6.1 percent compared with the same period a year earlier.
The median forecasts for all major sectors, except manufacturing, have also shifted upwards since the last survey of economists in March, MAS said. "In particular, the financial services and construction industries saw their full-year forecasts jump from 7.6 percent and 4.8 percent to 10.2 percent and 10 percent respectively, as respondents expressed confidence in the continuing growth momentum of these two sectors," it said.
The wholesale and retail sector is projected to grow a median 7.1 percent, up 0.4 percent from the last survey, while the economists raised by 0.3 percent to a median 5.3 percent their full-year forecast for expansion in the hotel and restaurant sector, the survey found.
Citing weak global electronics demand, economists downgraded their full-year growth forecasts for the manufacturing sector to a median 6.6 percent from 7.4 percent reported in the last survey, MAS said. The downgrade came after slower-than-expected 4.3 percent first-quarter expansion in the sector, it said.
Manufacturing accounts for one third of Singapore's GDP which was valued at 210 billion dollars (140 billion US) last year. With slower manufacturing growth, the economists also expect slower growth in non-oil domestic exports, at 7.0 percent down from 9.2 percent seen in the last survey.
"Overall, the respondents are mostly of the view that the domestic economy should continue to perform well against a generally supportive global economic backdrop," MAS said. "There remain the risks however, of an avian flu outbreak and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the US economy."