Iraqi leaders warned on Monday that an early US troop withdrawal could tip Iraq into all-out civil war after the New York Times said debate was growing in the White House over a gradual scaling-down of forces. The stark comments followed a wave of bombings and shootings in Iraq at the weekend that killed 250 people.
"This could produce a civil war, partition of the country and a regional war. We might see the country collapse," Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari, a Kurd, told a news conference when asked about the New York Times report.
Citing administration officials and consultants, the Times said these officials feared the last pillars of political support among Senate Republicans for US President George W. Bush's Iraq strategy were "collapsing around them".
It said debate was intensifying over whether Bush should try to prevent more Republican defections by announcing intentions for a gradual pull-out of troops from high-casualty areas.
More than 330 American soldiers were killed in Iraq during the April-June quarter, making it the deadliest three months for US troops since the March 2003 US-led invasion. Overall, 3,606 US soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqis have died.
Iraqi officials said the country's own security forces were not ready and warned a premature withdrawal of some of the 157,000 American troops could produce a security vacuum.
"We in Iraq believe, not just the government, but all political parties, that the presence of these forces is necessary to prevent increasing violence and to stop the country sliding into civil war," Sadiq al-Rikabi, a senior adviser to Shia Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, told Reuters. Sunni Arab Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, speaking to Reuters by telephone, said:
"I would be very happy to see the last American soldier leave today ... We understand their worry about not seeing much political progress in Iraq. But the problem is: who will fill the security vacuum if these forces withdraw?." Hashemi repeated his comments from Sunday that Iraqis had the right to take up arms to defend themselves in the wake of unrelenting violence that threatens to tear the country apart.
POLITICAL DEADLOCK:
The pressure on Bush from within his Republican Party comes only weeks after the last of the 28,000 troop reinforcements he sent to Iraq for a major security crackdown arrived. The push, launched in February, aims to curb violence and win time for Maliki to bring disaffected minority Sunni Arabs more into the political process.
But there is scepticism Iraq's leaders will meet political benchmarks aimed at fostering reconciliation. Only one of several key laws has been submitted to parliament.
Bush and his aides thought they could wait to begin talks about any change in strategy until September 15, when the US commander in Iraq and the US ambassador must present a report on Iraq's security and political progress, the Times said.
But these aides acknowledged it appeared forces were converging against Bush just as the Senate prepares this week to begin what promises to be a contentious debate on the war's future and financing, the newspaper said.
The administration must deliver an interim report to Congress by July 15 on Iraq. The report has gained significance with the increasing number of both Republican and Democratic lawmakers calling for a change in Bush's strategy in Iraq. Four more Republican senators have declared they can no longer support the strategy.
As a result, the newspaper said, aides are telling Bush that if he wants to forestall more defections, it would be wiser to announce plans for a far more narrowly defined mission for US troops that would allow for a staged pullback. September 15 looks like an end point for the debate, not a starting point, one administration official told the Times.
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