Japanese government bond (JGB) futures hit a three-week high on Friday as investors covered short positions on worries about the outcome of a coming election and as steadiness in Treasuries spurred buying.
Some market players were starting to fret that Japanese equities could take a hit and give government bonds a boost if the parliamentary election on July 29 deals the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe a severe setback.
A telephone survey by the Asahi newspaper published on Friday showed that Abe's coalition is likely to lose the upper house election after government mishandling of pension records and a series of gaffes by officials.
"If the ruling Liberal Democratic Party wins only the minimum number of seats expected, JGBs may rise in response to a stock market that's likely to fall," said Hidenori Suezawa, chief fixed income strategist at Daiwa Securities SMBC.
But other analysts said the JGB market was starting to catch up with the rise in Treasuries on the ongoing jitters about the sub-prime mortgage troubles and as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke this week noted the drag from the housing market.
"We're seeing some deferred buying as the uncertainty in the US diminishes and turns bullish for rates," said John Richards, head of Asia-Pacific strategy at RBS Securities Japan. Many investors remained cautious before the election and ahead of consumer price data next Friday. Until the CPI report, there are few domestic events to help give the market direction.
September 10-year futures rose 0.24 point to 132.08 and hit a three-week high of 132.16, climbing to the upper end of the range between 132.23 and 131.17 traded in the past few weeks. Traders said the rise above 132.00 in the lead contract helped trigger some buybacks. The volume in futures was 52,207, the busiest day on what was a quiet, holiday-abbreviated week.
The benchmark 10-year yield fell 1.5 basis points to 1.885 percent. Richards at RBS said the market may test the low end of the recent range near 1.85 percent but there was not enough momentum in the market to break it.
The five-year yield dropped 2 basis points to 1.480 percent, while the 30-year yield slid 1.5 basis points to 2.530 percent.
Some traders have speculated that the BOJ might think twice about raising rates to 0.75 percent from the current 0.5 percent next month if Abe were to resign in the wake of a big loss by the ruling party in this month's election. Swap contracts on the overnight call rate show the market is pricing in a 72 percent chance of a BOJ hike next month but holding around the 75 percent mark as it has for a few weeks. JGB gains were kept in check as Tokyo shares tracked a rise on Wall Street that drove the Dow Jones industrial average to a record-high close. The Nikkei share avera percent to approach a seven-year high hit earlier this month. As uncertainty over the outcome of the election will persist next week, JGB prices are likely to be swayed by moves in the stock market and Treasuries, traders said.
Treasuries edged up the previous day after Bernanke warned of up to $100 billion of losses in US sub-prime mortgages and said the housing market woes could dampen economic growth.
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