Investors are rushing into oil markets again this summer, driving a price rally as supply disruptions and strong demand growth rekindle worries of a worsening global energy crunch.
The surge in bullish speculative interest, however, is not a perfect replay of last summer, when prices briefly hit peaks on geopolitical tensions and the threat of hurricanes, then crashed when no disruptions materialised.
"The nature of supply concerns has changed from geopolitical speculation to something a lot more concrete," said Antoine Halff of FIMAT Research.
Speculators on the New York Mercantile Exchange's crude oil market boosted their net long positions to a record high last week as big money funds and other investors made a big bet the price of oil would head higher.
"Part of this increase in prices has been driven by a sea change in the views of speculative participants in the oil market," Barclays Capital said in a research note.
The rise in bullish interest from speculators came alongside a 10 percent rally in oil prices since last month, supported by growing concern the pace of world oil demand was exceeding increases in crude production.
The boom in speculative activity has triggered renewed scrutiny from US lawmakers, who are concerned that funds are facilitating higher pump prices.
But oil experts say the rally is supported by the fundamentals.
The International Energy Agency, adviser to 26 industrial nations, said last week that consumption of energy would outpace new production for the next five years, leading to a supply crunch in 2012.
STRONGER FUNDAMENTALS:
"The results of our analysis are quite strong," said IEA oil analyst Lawrence Eagles. "Something needs to happen. Either we need to have more supplies coming on stream, or we need to have lower demand growth."
Last year, speculative net longs in the oil market hit a peak in May in the run-up to the US summer driving season, when new fuel regulations, the shadow of the destructive 2005 hurricane season and unrest in the Middle East threatened supplies.
The concerns pushed US oil to a record price above $78 per barrel last July. But, when the threats failed to produce big disruptions, prices fell and investors rapidly reduced their net long positions.
"We believe the current price rally is critically different from last year's, as the fundamentals are substantially stronger," Goldman Sachs said in a research note.
"Global crude oil production is over 1 million barrels per day lower than last year, while demand is over 1 million bpd higher." Among the problems with world oil supply, shipments around the Atlantic basin have been hit as rebel attacks in Nigeria slashed its output and North Sea production faltered.
Support has also come from production cuts put in place by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The cartel agreed last year to reduce output by some 1.7 million barrels per day - about 2 percent of global consumption.
US oil could rise to $95 a barrel by the end of the year, from just over $75 now, if OPEC does not raise output to help meet growing demand, Goldman Sachs said.
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