Soyabean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher on Monday with outlooks for hot and dry weather in many portions of the US Midwest over the next week to 10 days boosting prices, traders said. CBOT soya closed 6-1/2 to 7-1/2 cents per bushel higher in the nearby months, with August up 7-1/4 at $8.22-3/4 per bushel.
New-crop November was up 7-1/4 at $8.47-3/4. Lightly traded deferred months-ended 6 higher to 4 cents lower. Traders said soya futures found support from the warmer and drier weather in the Midwest because the US soya crop is in its key pod-setting stage of development and hot weather now can harm that process.
The US Midwest was expected to be hot and mostly dry this week but some crop-boosting rains were in the outlook for next week, a private forecaster said on Monday.
"Rain is going to be needed in the next week or two to allow for favourable conditions for filling corn and beans," DTN Meteorlogix forecaster Mike Palmerino said. "The potential for significant rain next week is very important." An improvement in European crop weather and a slide on Monday in European grain markets along with a drop in CBOT wheat and corn limited gains in the soyabean futures market.
Cash basis bids in the Midwest were mostly steady to firm in the Midwest and farmer selling was slow. The CIF soya basis also was firm, cash dealers said. Exports were quiet over the weekend and on USDA said on Monday US soya inspected for export last week totalled 7.5 million bushels, below estimates for 8.0 million to 9.0 million bushels.
On Friday's CFTC report for futures and options combined showed that as of last on Tuesday, large speculators were long 137,146 lots, down 13,059 and short 27,058, up 1,888 lots.
Index funds were long 162,998 lots, up 903 and short 8,866 lots, up 1,368 lots. Technical traders are watching the August contract face resistance at its 50 day moving average of $8.37 per bushel and the nine-day relative strength index is at 42.
Traders view an RSI of 30 or less as one indication of an oversold market and 70 or more as an indication of an overbought market. Soyaoil futures ended higher following soyabeans and following the strong close overnight in the Malaysian palm oil market.
Oil/meal spreading and some unwinding of meal/oil spreads also gave soyaoil a lift. Soyaoil closed 0.62 to 0.77 cent per lb. higher, with August up 0.64 at 37.40 cents per lb.
Traders said funds bought 2,000 soyaoil and sold 1,000 soyameal. Soyameal ended unchanged to $1.20 per ton lower on a profit-taking setback and on oil/meal spreading. August soyameal closed 70 cents lower at $212.90 per ton.
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