In the current feverish run-up to elections, have you wondered why our political parties have still not published any meaningful manifestoes? Hoary and bombastic declarations of good intent notwithstanding, none of them have yet declared where they stand on real issues that impact our everyday lives, such as:
1. What to do about the Armed Forces hogging over 2/3rd of our annual disposable revenues (ie resources left over after recurring expenditures on debt, public services, and administration), as against a fraction of this amount spent on Health, Education, population planning, Housing, and expeditious delivery of justice?
2. Or, if and how they propose to tackle the root cause of stagnation in our rural economy, ie our lopsided land-ownership structure which no one in 60 years, inclusive of self-proclaimed reformers like Ayub Khan and Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, has been able to address?
3. Or, whether they plan to display courage by legislating a re-allocation of fiscal authority between Federal, Provincial and Local Governments? In other words, shall we continue to be a highly centralised polity forever debating NFC awards and aggravating inter-Province animus, or shall we progress towards a more participatory model of governance where all levels (federal, provincial, and local) have separate taxation domains?
4. Or, through what operational policies they propose to improve the country's abysmal rate of national savings, which has for decades been stuck in the low teens, precluding meaningful investment for economic growth (except, of course, in Governmental fairy-tales ritualistically related in annual "Pakistan Economic Surveys")?
5. Or, how they will ensure cheap and expeditious justice for our teeming masses that, despite recent Supreme Court activism, remain condemned to perpetual Kafkaesque torture in the labyrinths of our legal system?
To my mind, instead of their current obsession with inanities like "Deal-NO Deal", "Uniform or Civies", and Article 58.2(b), the issues itemised above are what our recently energised media should be grilling our politicos about, and demanding that they declare unambiguously where they stand on these burning issues.
Now, were I endowed with natural or acquired bounty like that commanded by Benazir Bhutto or Nawaz Sharif, I could easily incorporate my own political party and launch a well-funded campaign to win a "heavy mandate" to do good. But, seeing as the good Lord apparently abhors empowering mad-hatters like yours truly, I shall do the next best thing, ie make the outlines of my Political Manifesto public in the hope that it might shame our political parties into grudgingly incorporating some of its socially disruptive but, in the long run, highly salutary tenets.
Since most of what ails our country can be remedied by tackling the five aforementioned issues, my solutions to them are the sum total of my political manifesto, which I hereby offer free of cost to my readers. But, in the unlikely event of a political party seriously wishing to implement my agenda, I can always demand an appropriate fee for a more detailed exposition (there are no free lunches, remember). Now let us flesh out the aforementioned skeletal points.
1. EVER SINCE PARTITION, OUR CENTURIONS HAVE HAD A ONE-POINT AGENDA: TO blackmail every Government into forking over the bulk of its revenues, and whenever possible, grabbing political power to make sure it did. In the early decades of this Republic, they hogged as much as 90% of all disposable Government revenues. And, although, economic expansion over the years has somewhat mitigated their giant-sized bite, it still remains unacceptably high at 70% as shown below:
-- Inclusive of PKR 45 billion in military pensions camouflaged as civil expenditures.
Don't be fooled by the statement that our military spending is a meager 3.4% of GDP. The realistic way of evaluating its true impact is to view it in the context depicted above. Clearly, for a third world country to routinely surrender more than 2/3rd of its limited discretionary resources to its Armed Forces is an outrage. Do we pay taxes to keep our "Corps Commanders" in gravy?
I'm sure our current Generalissimo will be quick to point out that India spends five times as much on its defence (USD 22 billion vs. USD 4.75 billion for Pakistan...refer http://cia.gov/). And, he would be right. But, India's economy is now 10 times larger than that of Pakistan. And this multiple of our neighbour's GDP clout is likely to grow, not shrink! It can afford to spend 2.5% of its GDP on Defence whereas we cannot. Why do we need to boast the 4th largest standing army in the world? Ironically, most of the expansion in our military "foot-print" occurred after our valiant Praetorian Guards surrendered half of the country in 1971, thereby also halving the borders they needed to defend. So, in real terms, we now have 4 soldiers defending the same piece of soil as did one in the 60's! Here, then is my
FIRST MANIFESTO:
"Over the next 5 years, our real Armed Forces' budget (inclusive of pensions) shall be reduced @ 0.3% p.a. of GDP till it accounts for no more than 2% of GDP in fiscal 2011-12 and beyond...the resultant savings being added to expenditures on health, education, and justice via due process of legislative debate."
If this Manifesto is legislated, and assuming our GDP continues to grow at 7% p.a., your scribe estimates annual savings from Defence downsizing as follows:
PKR 28 billion (2007-08), PKR 30 billion (2008-09), PKR 32 billion (2009-10), PKR 34 billion (2010-11), and PKR 37 billion (2011-12)...the total exceeding PKR 160 billion over 5 years, more money than all Governments have spent on health, education, and justice in 60 years!
Before critics of this Manifesto jump in with both feet, let me inform my readers that current global defence spending is of the order of USD 1.2 trillion. Of this, USA accounts for 50% (4.1% of American GDP). However, excluding USA, the global national average expenditure on Defence is only 2% per annum. Hence, the 2% ceiling on Pak-Defence expenditure suggested above is not an outrageous notion. Of course, our Shoguns should be tasked to ensure that, while they reduce military head-count to 1965 levels, our nuclear deterrent remains intact and credible. The response from our perpetual bugaboo, India, would most likely be greater goodwill, reciprocity, and perhaps voluntary demilitarisation in occupied Kashmir.
2. According to the Federal Bureau of Statistics, as of year 2000, Pakistan had 23 million hectares of agricultural land under cultivation. Of this, 16.5 million hectares are registered as land belonging to 6.6 million farms. The balance unrecorded 6.5 million arable hectares belonging to the State is, presumably, under unlawful possession of Feudals and Waderas, mostly in lower Punjab and Sindh, and consists of what is euphemistically called "Katchi" land...unrecorded riverine land. 51% of recorded landholding consists of farms larger than 5 hectares. This land-holding pattern flies in the face of any number of academic studies which have demonstrated that agricultural productivity is highest in smaller land holdings; specifically in farm sizes less than 5 hectares.
If land reforms are conducted to redistribute all land in excess of 5 hectares per farm, it is estimated that nearly 5.7 million hectares can be resumed and redistributed among landless peasants and tenant farmers. It would create at least 1.1 million new farms and grant ownership rights to over 8 million rural residents. These figures would, of course, more than double if the 6.5 million hectares of "Katchi" land is also similarly redistributed. I.e. a total of 2.25 million new farms can be created with ownership rights benefiting 2.35 million farming families, or over 17 million individuals! Now, isn't that a truly revolutionary thought?
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Total Governmental Revenues (2006-07): PKR 1,162 billion
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Less: Non-discretionary expenditures: 739
Debt 262
Public Services & Administration 477
Resources available for Discretionary Spending 423
Of which, Military Spending* 295 = 70%
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Source: Pakistan Economic Survey 2006-07
(To be concluded)
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