Tokyo shares likely to remain buoyant

Japanese share prices are likely to remain buoyant in the coming week, particularly if major US companies report solid earnings and concerns over credit market woes continue to ease, dealers said.
Investors will weigh US and domestic data for fresh clues on the health of the global economy and prospects for another US interest rate cut, they said. The Bank of Japan will be in focus on Thursday when it announces the outcome of its monetary policy meeting, although players expect the central bank to hold its super low interest rates steady again.
Japan's stock market remained in recovery mode over the past week, regaining the key 17,000 points level for the first time in almost two months. The benchmark Nikkei-225 index rose 279.35 points or 1.66 percent over the week to end Friday at 17,065.04, after a 2.90 percent gain the previous week.
The broader Topix index of all first-section shares climbed 40.29 points or 2.49 percent to 1,656.91, following a 4.16 percent jump the previous week. The market could extend its rebound when it reopens on Tuesday after a long holiday weekend, depending on the outcome of Friday's monthly US labour market report, analysts said.
"We will see earnings announcement from major US companies," starting with aluminium giant Alcoa on Tuesday, said Masayoshi Yano, senior analyst at Tokai Tokyo Research Centre.
"Strong earnings announcements should naturally provide strong support for the market," said Yano. Investors will continue to monitor the state of the US economy and mortgage market, but fears of a credit crunch have eased recently, dealers said.
"Market participants have been extremely concerned about the US subprime mortgage problem. But they are becoming calm and becoming responsive to corporate earnings and economic data," said Yano.
In Japan, machinery order figures due to be released Thursday are expected to show growth, major brokerage house Nomura Securities said in a memo to clients.
Japan appears to be continuing its slow but steady recovery on the basis of recent economic indicators, including relatively upbeat business sentiment, analysts believe. Speculation about another interest rate cut in the United States should also grow, according to Nomura, which expects the Nikkei-225 to move between 16,800 to 17,400 points over the coming week.
For the Nikkei index to rise further, however, the dollar must recover against the yen, which would be positive for exporter earnings, said Tsuyoshi Nomaguchi, strategist at Daiwa Securities.
"The main driver behind the Nikkei's gain in the past week was the domestic-demand related shares. But for the Nikkei to make further gains, exporter shares must also rise," he said.