MMA unity on the rocks?

By the time these lines appear in print the saga of Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) government in the NWFP will have become part of history, unless the Byzantine politics of Pakistan takes one more turn. Chief Minister Akram Durrani sent a letter on Monday evening, advising Governor Ali Jan Muhammad Aurakzai to dissolve the provincial assembly.
The governor, constitutionally bound to accept the advice, accordingly dissolved the Assembly on Wednesday morning and was reported to have appointed Shamsul Mulk, a former chairman of Water and Power Development Authority, as care-taker chief minister. Now opens a new chapter of care-taker rule, which may naturally have an impact on the existing political alignments in the province. Of course, the anti-Musharraf All Parties Democratic Movement had all along been seeking dissolution of this assembly, thinking that such a development would undermine the credibility of the President's electoral victory.
But, as they say the barn-door was locked after the horse had bolted, much to the glee of the ruling camp. Article 41(3) of the Constitution says that the Electoral College for the presidential election shall consist of members of both the houses of parliament and the four provincial assemblies. The APDM had planned to have the NWFP assembly dissolved before the presidential election on October 6, but that plan fizzled out thanks to infighting between the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI) and Jamaat-i-Islami, the two main components of the ruling MMA.
However, the story how and why the NWFP chief minister did not seek dissolution of the assembly in time to be part of the APDM plan is not as bizarre as it appears to be. There was a method in the madness that apparently underlay the rapid flow of events ultimately resulting in non-dissolution of the NWFP assembly, though the blame game between the JUI(F) and JI continues. In his swan-song to the assembly, Durrani lamented the doings of "these opportunists (who) enjoyed the comforts of being in the ruling party but when their help was needed to tide over a difficult situation (the no-confidence move by the opposition) they tried to isolate me".
He was alluding to the resignations by Jamaat members who had acted in step with other APDM members. But his job was still secure as the movers of no-trust vote against him were told by their higher leadership in Islamabad to withdraw their challenge, which they did. JUI chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman was bitter over the APDM members' resignations that had upset Durrani's applecart. He sees "no future" for the Nawaz Sharif-headed APDM, he said in an interview, adding his party was part of the opposition conglomerate in its individual capacity, and not as constituent of MMA, and would like to review its partnership in the light of "new situation". Jamaat-i-Islami chief Qazi Hussain Ahmad, too, has conceded that the MMA is facing a "credibility crisis".
However, both the leaders have made it clear, in separate statements, that MMA would remain intact. One would be tempted to ask how come Qazi Hussain, the nemesis of present rulers and a committed warrior against President Musharraf's pro-United States foreign policy, will remain a close ally of Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who is known to be receptive to persuasion from the powers that be? But for the latter's active cooperation the regime-saving Seventeenth Amendment would not have been passed, and his protégé, violating the MMA policy, would not have attended the National Security Council session.
In fact, JUI(F) and JI nurture two very different worldviews. JUI(F) is power-conscious, with a taste for enjoying power. Bitterly opposed to President Musharraf in the centre, Maulana Fazlur Rehman's JUI is a coalition partner with the Shujaat-led Pakistan Muslim League (Q) in Balochistan. Some of JUI(F)'s senior leaders like Maulana Muhammad Sherani and Abdul Ghafoor Haideri have always espoused the politics of pragmatism. But Qazi Sahib's party tends to look at politics as an ideological struggle, and, at present, is strongly entrenched against American presence in the region.
On the face of it, both the leaders hold identical perspectives on the war against international terrorism, but beyond that congruence their approaches differ in many ways. However, what keeps them together now and likely would in the coming general elections is their tested belief that as an alliance the MMA has much greater electoral potential than as individual parties.
Thanks to this approach as against their vote bank of 5 to 6 percent of the total in previous elections, the MMA secured twice that number and emerged as the largest opposition group in the parliament. That gives reason and logic to the statements of Maulana Fazlur Rehman and Qazi Hussain Ahmad that the MMA would survive despite the NWFP wrangle. And why not; if one can comprehend the intricacies of the famous Mullah-Military Alliance theory?