Do come but not yet

President Pervez Musharraf has advised Pakistan's most eagerly wanna-be prime minister for the third time, Benazir Bhutto, to delay her planned homecoming on October 18. "I would say she should not come before, she should come later", when the Supreme Court has ruled on the legality of his re-election, he said in a private television channel interview on Wednesday.
The mystery surrounding the President's remark perfectly matches the rainbow of analyses being offered as to what exactly prompted him to say this now that preparations to accord her an unprecedented welcome are in full swing. Initial reaction from the locally based PPP leaders indicates that the advice to delay her return would not be accepted.
Her postponing the date of return to Pakistan in deference to the wishes of a military ruler would tend to dent her image among her followers, who are already pitted against unforgiving adversaries over the issue of her indemnity in corruption cases under the National Reconciliation Ordinance. The final decision, however, has to be taken by her in consultation with her senior party men who would be meeting her in Dubai. But, certainly what she decides would ultimately prevail.
The touch of caution attached to President Musharraf's advice betrays his apprehension that the Supreme Court decision may not go his way. His controversial election on October 6 has been challenged in the apex court on the ground that the present assemblies could not elect him and that he was not eligible to be elected as president. An 11-member bench will resume hearing on October 17, a day before Benazir Bhutto is scheduled to land at Karachi airport.
The hearing may last any number of days, even beyond November 15 when the President must shed his uniform. But there can be many a slip between the cup and the lip. To the question by the interviewer how he would react if the court disqualified him, President Musharraf said, "We (will) cross the bridge when we come to it".
That he was cryptic and did not say that whatever the verdict it would be accepted, gives credence to the opinion held by some quarters that in case his reelection was rejected he would impose martial law. With Benazir Bhutto present in the country imposing martial law may not be impossible but it would be definitely problematic, and a huge embarrassment to the international promoters of the cause of 'enlightened moderation' in Pakistan. President Musharraf, too, would not like things coming to such a pass. However, in case the legal battle lingered on beyond November 15, he "will follow the constitution", which means that he will remain in office till his successor is elected.
Could it be that Pervez Musharraf has decided to dispel the growing suspicion that he would be PPP's president during his next tenure? Till not very long ago he was campaigning for the Pakistan Muslim League (Q). Then, almost simultaneous with the United States' open support for Benazir Bhutto he swung to the opposite direction and intensified backroom negotiations leading to her indemnity in the cases against her.
She too sent out signals that she would go even a step further than Pervez Musharraf in promoting the US agenda, be it hunting Osama Bin Laden or questioning Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan. President Musharraf's latest position, as revealed in an interview, is that he would stay above party politics. "I am above this, I will remain above...Let any party win and I will work with them", he said. That may also help him regain his constitution-mandated neutrality that was tarnished when he threw out Nawaz Sharif on the former prime minister's home-coming with the permission of the Supreme Court.
Perhaps, more logical is the analysis that suggests that with his plate full with problems, President Pervez Musharraf feels that Benazir Bhutto's arrival at this juncture would add to his worries. For one, during her recent visits to the United States she spelled out her perceptions of Pakistan's strategic dilemmas and suggested her peculiar solutions which may come into clash with those held by the Establishment.
Her claim that she would give the International Atomic Energy Agency access to Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan and her prognosis justifying direct strikes by the Coalition forces into Pakistan territory, have already been rejected by the Establishment. It would be the President's worry also as to how she would be able to share the political turf with the MQM in urban areas of Sindh.
The scenario gets murkier if one factors into it the return of Nawaz Sharif, which is quite likely once Benazir comes back. Then, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), the President's traditional support base, is under threat of complete metamorphosis with some parts of it going to anti-Musharraf All Parties Democratic Movement. With these numerous possibilities to face President Pervez Musharraf would surely like the PPP chairperson to positively respond to his advice. Will she oblige, only time will tell.