Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed mixed on Friday, with the deferred months supported by the government's outlook for US soybean supplies to be tight in the coming season due to a smaller crop, traders said.
November soybeans closed 4-3/4 cents weaker at $9.76-3/4 per bushel, while July 2008 through November 2009 ended 1-1/4 to 15 cents up. The US Agriculture Department cut 21 million bushels off its 2007 US soy production number, estimating it at 2.598 billion bushels. The drop reflected a shift in 2007 planted acreage from soybeans to corn, with soy acres down 400,000 acres and corn up 700,000 acres.
The government forecast US 2007/08 soy ending stocks at 215 million bushels, unchanged from last month and below the average of analysts' estimates for 229 million. "It was fundamentally constructive because the lower production in October usually indicates that the final will be even lower. So we are looking at very tight supplies," said analyst Anne Frick with Prudential Financial.
But much of the bullish data was factored into the nearbys before the report as soy rallied 55 cents ahead of report amid speculation that USDA could cut its acreage number, thus it production estimate. That talk ran counter to the average of analysts' estimates which was higher than USDA's September forecast.
"Also, USDA adopted the ag attache estimate and raised its forecast of the Brazilian soybean crop by a million tonnes ... and, of course, it's a harvest period Friday," Frick added.
The weakness in wheat - falling the 30-cent limit at one point - added pressured to the soy market. While USDA lowered its soy acreage number, it left its yield estimate unchanged at 41.4 bushels per acre, raising questions whether it will make adjustments in the November report.
"If you look at the bean yields for Illinois down two bushels - they certainly show some double-crop problems. But I can't confirm it by looking at Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee, so it's not uniformly shown," said Roy Huckabay, analyst with Chicago trade-house The Linn Group.
Soymeal held firm and gained on soyoil amid strong weekly export sales data for meal. December meal closed 80 cents higher at $278.90 and December soyoil ended 0.44 cent per lb weaker at 39.53 cents per lb, setting back from Thursday's rally. October expiration in the products was quiet, with oil going off the board 0.02 cent down at 39.38 cents and meal up 50 cents at $272.50 a ton.
Commodity funds sold 2,000 soybean contracts, 2,000 soyoil and bought 1,000 soymeal, traders said. The government reported last week's soybean export sales at 550,100 tonnes, below estimates for 600,000 to 900,000 tonnes.
Last week's soymeal export sales for the current marketing year, which began October 1, reached 266,000 tonnes. The tally was above estimates for 50,000 to 150,000 tonnes Weekly soyoil export sales for the current marketing year were 8,200 tonnes, within estimates for 5,000 to 15,000 tonnes.
Traders were continuing to monitor the heat and dryness in Mato Grosso, Brazil, where early soybean planting has been stalled due to a lack of rain. Rains were forecast for the weekend, which should help farmers start planting, DTN Meteorlogix said.
The National Oilseed Processors Association will issue its monthly crush data on Monday, with analysts expecting it to report a September crush near 136.7 million bushels, compared to 137.6 million bushels crushed in August.
Comments
Comments are closed.