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China's yuan jumped 0.3 percent against the dollar on Monday, its biggest daily gain since its July 2005 revaluation, which dealers said might show the central bank was priming markets for slightly faster appreciation next year.
Also on Monday, the offshore non-deliverable forward market (NDFs) showed strongest post-revaluation expectations of yuan appreciation in a year's time, a move dealers said that was echoing the spot market. "The NDFs had pointed to rising anticipation of yuan gains over the past few weeks in response to mounting international pressure for the yuan to rise," said a Shanghai dealer at a US bank. "The spot's strength late last week and on Monday adds weight to the NDFs' forecast."
Spot yuan closed at 7.4745 to the dollar on Monday, up 0.31 percent from Friday's close of 7.4976, after it hit a post-revaluation intraday trading peak of 7.4740. The yuan has now risen 4.42 percent so far this year. The central bank set the tone for the yuan's rise by announcing a mid-point of 7.4718 before trade began, up from Friday's 7.4810 and the reference rate's highest level since the revaluation.
Several onshore dealers said they were maintaining their forecasts for the yuan to rise around 5 percent for all of 2007, but they said the yuan might be permitted to gain at a modestly faster rate next year.
One-year dollar/yuan offshore NDFs were at 6.9640/6.9680 in late trade on Monday, against 6.9950/7.0000 in on Friday. That implied 12-month yuan appreciation from Monday's mid-point of between 7.23 and 7.29 percent, a jump from 6.87-6.95 percent implied on Friday and erasing the previous strongest forecast of a 7.10 percent rise hit on October 19.

Copyright Reuters, 2007

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