Has the government changed at the end of last Thursday? On the face of it yes, but actually it is just change of faces, which everybody knows, in President-General Musharraf's government. All through the last seven years local and foreign leaders and media rightly labelled it so, although according to the constitution it should have been Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz's government.
At best we can say the play "Pakistan 1999-2007" was produced, directed, written and acted by Musharraf and presented by the military establishment. Act 1 started on the dramatic note of plane hijacking and what not. But before its end, 9/11 happened which changed the direction of the play. It was left as the only show in town so it extended and it is still going on.
Act 2 was played in 2002-07 with a huge cast and PM Aziz in a supporting actor role. And now it appears that the climax is gradually unfolding with the hero hell bent on hara-kiri. The musical score at the finale has already started to bring an end to President Musharraf's play. Any other ending would not be accepted by the Pakistani audience.
President Musharraf could have given the play a happy ending, but he messed up with the script by adding to it the conflict with the judiciary early this year. The urge for dragging it is killing. There onward he lost the grip on the script, and the compulsion of the twist in the story started dictating the end. Popular dictum is: 'End justifies the means.' I think 'what we think is an end is actually a beginning of another end which is dictated by the means.'
Nevertheless, it's time to look back dispassionately and attempt SWOT analysis of the Musharraf government. The new government after the election will have to build further on its strengths, address the weaknesses, counter the threats and cash in on the opportunities inherited by it.
INHERITANCE - STRENGTH:
-- Economic growth.
-- Higher expenditure on infrastructure projects.
-- More foreign investment - direct & portfolio.
-- Reduction in poverty (government claim10%, according to World Bank 5%).
-- 77% exports growth in six years 2000-01 to 2006-07.
-- Completion of elected government tenure.
-- Improved relations with India.
-- Better relations with USA, EU and China.
-- Rise in literacy rates.
-- Holding of two local bodies elections.
-- Revamping the colonial local government and administration system.
-- More jobs.
-- Availability of credit to middle and low income groups.
-- Opening of electronic media to private sector.
LIABILITIES - WEAKNESSES:
-- Incapable system to curb terrorism.
-- Poor law and order condition.
-- Inability to control rising religious extremism in the country, particularly in areas bordering Afghanistan.
-- Rising discord in provinces - Balochistan crisis.
-- No agreement yet on NFC.
-- Consensus not evolved on Water Distribution accord.
-- Rising income inequality.
-- Poor governance.
-- Slow implementation of the approved infrastructure projects.
-- Failure to meet the growing electricity demand of the country.
-- High current account deficit.
-- No let-up in lower level corruption.
-- Unemployment still out of control.
-- Worsening relations with civil society.
-- Poor handling of judiciary.
-- Poor education standard.
BEQUEST - OPPORTUNITIES:
-- To impress on the world that Pakistanis support democracy, independent judiciary and not dictatorship.
-- To show the world that the civil society is strong and capable of countering Talibanisation in a democratic dispensation.
-- To show that in democracy individuals are dispensable.
-- To build on the economic base developed in last few years.
-- To resolve the inter-provincial issues and develop harmony.
-- To convert the economic gains in better income distribution system.
-- To build good relations with the neighbouring countries by stopping interference in their internal affairs.
-- To develop friendly policies towards Afghanistan and India.
-- To revamp our policy to the West.
-- To utilise the demographic dividend which Pakistan enjoys today.
CHALLENGE - THREATS:
-- Rising terrorism & Talibanisation.
-- Rising lawlessness.
-- Destruction of higher judiciary credibility.
-- Rising instability because of confrontation with the opposition.
-- Economic slowdown.
-- Strengthening of dictatorship.
-- Worsening of Pakistan's image abroad.
-- Economic aid and trade squeeze from the West.
Now looking at this one can say that except for the happy economic scene, political and internal security scenes have been gory and full of conflict. And the Act 3 is heading to a tragic end. If the street protest gathers momentum it would be difficult for the loyalists to side with the President.
Once he would become civilian it would be easier for these loyalists to ditch him. The opposition, civil society and the judiciary will then be redeemed. The country is at a juncture where it needs national consensus and democratically elected leadership to steer it out of the storm. One person cannot hold it together under a sham democracy and elections. So good-bye to the existing mess. ([email protected])
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