One-in-three chance of global 'growth recession': Deutsche

The chances of a global "growth recession" - where world growth dips to historical troughs below 2 percent - are about one in three next year, according to economists at Germany's biggest bank Deutsche Bank.
Using a predictive model based on financial market readings such as bond yields, currencies, equities, house prices and short-term interest rates, Deutsche said there was about a 33 percent chance of a "serious growth recession" as experienced in the early 1970s and 1980s.
In a note to clients dated November 19, its economists said there was just less than 50-50 chance of a mini growth recession akin to those in the early 1990s and early this decade. "The bursting of the housing and credit bubble this year and the ensuing credit and banking crisis have elevated the level of uncertainty about the economic outlook to an unusually high level," the Deutsche report said.