Global October 2007/September 2008 soyaoil production of 39.52 million tonnes will be below consumption of 40.02 million tonnes, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast. This compares to estimated 2006/07 production of 36.75 million tonnes and consumption of 36.65 million tonnes.
It will reduce global 2007/08 season ending soyaoil stocks to 3.63 million tonnes from 4.11 million tonnes at the end of 2006/07, it estimated in a weekly report. "World demand for soyaoil will show an above-average increase of 3.4 million tonnes in October-September 2007-08," it said. "Soyaoil will have to fill the gap created by insufficient production and supplies of sunoil, rape oil, other oils and fats and in October-March 2007-08 also of palm oil."
Palm oil demand was also strong but tree maturity limits the scope that output can be increased, it said. "Therefore, soyaoil has to fill the gap," it said. "As a result we have seen a substantial increase in soyabean crushings in recent months and expect that this trend will continue in the medium term."
Meanwhile, increased soyabean crushings were in turn forecast to reduce global 2007/08 season ending soyabean stocks to 54.47 million tonnes from a record 72.10 million tonnes at the end of 2006/07, it added.
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