The relinquishing of the most powerful post of army chief by President Pervez Musharraf has raised the question whether he will be able to become a powerful president - that looks to be his wish after leaving his power base.
The powerful head of the state or otherwise will be the issue, that would take the center stage in the political scene in the post uniformed-Musharraf scenario. The anti-Musharraf political forces appear to be interested in wanting Musharraf to be another Rafiq Tarar. But Musharraf will not like himself to be so because the (former) General has enjoyed the status of supreme authority for over eight years. Musharraf was having all the powers during this period and the opposition parties could do nothing against him.
Musharraf will be powerful with the existing constitutional provisions. Under 58-(2) B, Musharraf has the power to dissolve the parliament. Through 14th Amendment, Minister Nawaz Sharif with two/thirds majority in the National Assembly deprived the then president Rafiq Tarar from dissolving the parliament.
The PML (Q) with the support of MMA passed the 17th Amendment that empowered the president again to send the elected government packing. However, the government dissolution was linked with rectification of the Supreme Court.
Even in the past, the dissolution of the government could be challenged in the Supreme Court and the latter restored the Nawaz government, which was dissolved by former president late Ghulam Ishaq Khan. However, in the 17th Amendment it is binding that the apex court must be with the president and this very term places a check on the president.
The inclusion of president's power to dissolve the government in the 17th Amendment means that Musharraf does not want to be rubber stamp head of state. At the time of passing of 17th Amendment by the parliament in 2003, Musharraf was supposed to quit the army by December 2004 and this he had pledged in his televised address to the nation. But he never did that, keeping people waiting for another three years.
Musharraf has been lucky so far to have a divided opposition. He played his cards very systematically and always kept the opposition in the guessing.
The Wednesday's change of army command was strategic move in a sense that it would make the opposition more confused. Due to this step, the APDM that meets in Lahore on Thursday is not likely to take a final decision on elections boycott.
Some political analysts are of the view that by quitting army, Musharraf gave in to international pressure.
It is believed that it was this pressure that forced Musharraf to quit the army as the opposition parties remained short of bringing people to the streets against Musharraf even after imposition of emergency.
There is an argument that Benazir Bhutto's PPP would have no problem to go along with Musharraf as civilian head of state. But at a press briefing at Islamabad in the second week of November, the former Prime Minister Ms Bhutto called for repealing the 58 (2) B.
This demand indicates that PPP likes Musharraf to be a ceremonial head of the state. The PML (N) - whose government was overthrown by Musharraf in 1999 - is not ready to accept Musharraf even as a simple civilian president with or without the power to dissolve parliament.
Exactly, like the PML (N), the legal fraternity, whose prominent leaders are still in jails since the imposition of emergency, does not like Musharraf in any shape or form. They will definitely launch a struggle for restoration of pre-emergency judiciary that could turn into an anti-Musharraf campaign.
The one option with Musharraf to go with his current powerful status is to have a hung parliament. He could have a hung parliament if the president's camp kept the PPP and the PML (N) at a distance from each other before and even after election. Also the president cannot afford to have the deposed judges reinstated in the Supreme Court and the high courts.
The PPP is not having forceful demand of reinstatement of judges though the party leaders have a soft corner for deposed judges. The PML (N), on the other hand, wants the deposed judges back in the courts. Some other political parties including Imran Khan-led PTI are also demanding the same.
One thing is sure that after quitting army, Musharraf will definitely need the support of political parties. Musharraf will be more reconciliatory to the opposition without uniform. The PPP is supposed to play a crucial role. Both Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif will need the PPP for their future strategy.
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