Monthly Roundup: more things uncertain than certain

"Après moi le deluge" (After me the Deluge - Louis XV King of France) In a very frank interview with BBC on 17 November 2007 President Musharraf is reported to have "hit back against all his domestic and international critics by warning them that if he went, the nuclear assets would fall into the hands of extremists".
America has been airing just those fears for years now about our nuclear assets and we have been just as frequently claiming that such fears are baseless and that our nuclear assets are totally safe from illegitimate use. Now from the horse's mouth this is something new and will draw further negative attention to our nuclear arsenal and capabilities.
Americans will now argue that if the "safety" (from American perspective) of our nuclear weapons is dependent on one individual remaining in power, then it does not have roots in an institutionalised system. Americans have lost no time in jumping in on this situation. Washington Post disclosed on 11 November that "the United States has developed contingency plans to safeguard Pakistani nuclear assets if the current political turmoil allows extremists to get hold of the weapons".
Adding spice to the controversy, Washington Post quotes a former unnamed US official as saying "if an attempt were made by the United States to seize the weapons to prevent their loss, it could be very messy". Not to be outdone, a British think tank called The Pakistan Research Unit has claimed in a paper authored by its chief Professor Shaun Gregory that the current turmoil in Pakistan's North-West has increased the chances of Pakistan's nuclear assets falling into the hands of the tribal militants.
The paper goes to the extent of claiming that some 4.5 % or about "1 in 25of of those entrusted in Pakistan with nuclear duties are unreliable at any given time". While only time will tell whether General Musharraf's statement does him any good, it has certainly drawn and reinforced a lot of unwelcome attention to our nuclear assets.
AMERICAN PARADIGM SHIFT: from dry-nursing to wet-nursing Pakistan! With cyclic regularity American politicians and officials have been in turn advising, admonishing, criticising, brow-beating, educating, cajoling, threatening, mollifying Pakistani rulers on all matters under the sun generally but more specifically on our participation in America's "war against terrorism" which we, putting on a brave face, call our own war against terrorism. We are constantly reminded of the Dollars we have been receiving to be America's faithful ally as also that we need to do more.
The "do more refrain" is always followed each time by a pat on the back from another American quarter for our invaluable services to the cause of fighting against terror. All this we are quite used to and we have been taking it in our stride. In recent week, however, America's involvement in Pak affairs has entered a new phase.
Now America is involved in giving direction to Pakistani politics at the micro level. This change took place as General Musharraf's grip on the country's affairs started slipping following the sacking of the Chief Justice and subsequent developments. Nothing appears to have gone right for him since. Just have a look at some of the statements made by US officials and politicians during the month!
6 NOVEMBER 2007: President Bush on Monday exhorted President Musharraf to hold elections and relinquish his army post as soon as possible.
6 NOVEMBER 2007: The US has started the process of reviewing its economic and military assistance to Pakistan, State Department said.
8 NOVEMBER 2007: "I just spoke to President Musharraf and my message was very plain, very easy to understand. And that is: the US wants you to have the elections as scheduled and quit as army chief" - President Bush.
9 NOVEMBER 2007: The White House on Friday demanded an early end to the state of emergency in Pakistan while the State Department noted that house arrest orders for former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto were with drawn following a US demand that they be revoked.
12 NOVEMBER 2007: In an interview with ABC News 'This Week' talk show Condoleezza Rice indicated that President Musharraf could stay if he ended emergency, held parliamentary elections and took off his uniform.
13 NOVEMBER 2007: Mr Negroponte is expected to meet General Pervez Musharraf with a message from Washington outlining various proposals for ending the crisis, according to State Department sources.
13 NOVEMBER 2007: The White House indicated on Tuesday that the United States is helping evolve a new political formula that could enable President Pervez Musharraf and Pakistan's main political parties to work together.
15 NOVEMBER 2007: Bush to Musharraf "....you can't be the head of the military and the president at the same time".
17 NOVEMBER 2001: "Mr Negroponte (US Deputy Secretary of State) reiterated the importance of moderate forces working together in Pakistan when he spoke with Ms Bhutto".
19 NOVEMBER 2001: According to reports in US "Benazir appears to have softened her attitude towards President Musharraf following a visit by a top US envoy to Islamabad which aimed at promoting reconciliation between her and the general ...... It was made clear to President Musharraf that if things don't change, aid money could be cut and it was very serious and on the table". How is this as a sample of where our relations with our Godfather are headed?
20 NOVEMBER 2007: President Bush went public with his reservations about Nawaz Sharif's commitment to the war on terror, saying that the former Prime Minister's relations with religious parties raised doubts about it.
29 NOVEMBER 2007 (following Musharraf taking oath as civilian President): "...... but there are still steps left in order to get Pakistan back firmly on that road to constitutional democratic rule" - US State Department.
EMERGENCY, ITS AFTERMATH AND END (16 DECEMBER)Very early in the month, as the cases in the Supreme Court against General Musharraf's candidature finally moved close to conclusion and a decision (to all indications against General Musharraf) seemed imminent, General Musharraf declared emergency in Pakistan, under a new PCO.
General Musharraf's grip on the country's affairs had started slipping way back in March, following the sacking of the Chief Justice and the latter's subsequent, resounding reinstatement by a full bench of the Supreme Court. Since then nothing had gone right for General Musharraf.
As his difficulties multiplied with serious trouble in the north-west and with Benazir apparently breaking free (after obtaining several vital political and personal concessions) from the understanding reached with him and commitments made to him, and now running a full-fledged political campaign against him, he saw no way out for himself other than imposing the state of emergency.
Mass arrests of political leaders and lawyers including past and present Presidents of the Supreme Court Bar (Munir A Malik and Aitzaz Ahsen) were made. Supreme Court Judges refusing to take oath under the PCO were sacked and put under virtual house arrest.
Lawyers continued their struggle with their dream of a really independent Judiciary shattered by the purge of "troublesome" judges across the country and imposition of emergency.
With across the board sympathy of the populace at large, they appear to be digging in for a long struggle. This has taken the form of not appearing before judges who took oath under the new PCO, holding marches and demonstrations, hunger-strikes and placing wreaths before the residences of the sacked judges as a mark of support.
The Bar Councils have taken action against lawyers defying their instructions not to appear before judges who took oath under the new PCO. As a counter-measure, General Musharraf passed an ordinance which may allow him to take action against the Bar Council Members.
The sacked judges are virtually under detention since lawyers, politicians and the media people are not allowed to meet them. Aitzaz Ahsen, President-elect of the Supreme Court Bar Association was still under arrest towards the end of the month and Munir A. Malik was only released when serious illness appeared to threaten his life.
With the popular Media Channels it was also head on. Most were forced to close down and some were subsequently allowed to restart transmission, when, apparently bowing to pressure, they agreed to cut out programs which were unacceptable to authorities, to put on ice several outspoken anchors and to tone down criticism of the Government.
When a stubborn channel attempted to run clandestine programs from unknown locations broadcasting them from Dubai, political pressure was used to persuade Dubai to ban the transmission - something unprecedented for Dubai.
Next, sale of satellite dishes was prohibited and shops selling them were shut down. Geo, perhaps the lone stubborn channel, was reduced to conducting roadside programs. It vowed to find transmission facilities in other countries. Down the drain went Musharraf's claims of having made media free.
The American government and politicians, not wanting to seem supportive of such draconian measures in an election year of their own, brought considerable pressure to bear on President Musharraf to lift emergency, to conduct fair and free elections, to doff his military uniform and so on.
Commonwealth went to the extent of suspending Pakistan's membership a second time, after due notice, to be fair. With much at stake, Americans were loath to cut loose from General Musharraf, however. He was considered indispensable for success of American policies in Afghanistan and in the long run in the region and elsewhere.
Under foreign pressure or from other considerations, most of the arrested politicians were released towards the end of the month and the General finally doffed his uniform on 28 November 2007 thus ending his stint as President-cum-Army Chief and finally took oath of office as President on 29 November 2007, but not before passing ordinances ensuring certain powers would continue to be available to him even out of uniform.
But restrictions on the media continued and so did the emergency. Out of uniform after eight yeas as both the civilian and military chief, Musharraf probably felt too exposed and for some time refused to bow to national and international pressure on the question of lifting the emergency which is continuing.
Addressing the nation on the eve of taking oath as President, Musharraf finally announced that the emergency and the PCO under which he was elected will be withdrawn on 16 December. Nevertheless, the approaching election will be the most bizarre ever!
ELECTION PROSPECTS: With the Presidents election, the Election Commission itself and the judicial processes all being challenged, this would be probably remembered as the most controversial election ever in the history of Pakistan which has seen many contentious ones in the past.
The picture about who is participating and who is not, cleared up to some extent only towards the very end of the month at which time the party positions were as follows: ML(Q): obviously participating, MQM: participating, JUI (F): very firm on participation, PPP: almost certain to participate but pretending to keep options open, APDM (ML-N, JI, TI and several other small parties): not participating, Baloch Nationalist parties: definitely not participating.
APDM has formed two committees to convince PPP, JUI (F) and other parties to also boycott the elections. PPP and JUI (F) are to enter parleys apparently for seat adjustments thus reviving memories of the old BB-Fazl association in the last PPP Government.
NEED AMERICA REALLY BOTHER ABOUT OUR NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES? From time to time, with cyclic regularity, America keeps expressing its deep concern about our nuclear arsenal falling into what America thinks are "wrong hands". Does it have genuine reasons to fear our small nuclear capability?
As far as the security of America itself is concerned, Pakistan's missiles could not even reach it half way either now or in the foreseeable future. America's bases close by may be within reach but no one in Pakistan would be foolish or reckless enough to risk massive nuclear retaliation by attacking them. Is Israel the main factor behind America's concern in this matter?
Israel, a belligerent state formed in an area where Jews numbered no more than 5 % of the population as late as early twentieth century, is vehemently opposed to any Muslim country having or developing nuclear weapons or missile systems capable of delivering them.
The other fear could be about nuclear proliferation especially to Iran since long on the cross hairs of America and Israel. It is ironic that the whole world looked the other way while Israel gained its nuclear capability through proliferation helped by American and European entities.
Let us look at the attitude of America itself in the context of nuclear non-proliferation. It is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty signed in 1965 by some 165 states around the world including all nuclear powers of the time.
The treaty not only required a halt to all production of nuclear weapons but also complete disarmament of nuclear stockpiles over a period. What is America's record in respect of this solemn treaty to which it is a signatory. In violation of the treaty, it has not only not reduced its nuclear armaments, but, on the other hand, has continued to produce more sophisticated nuclear arms which have been tested and used for example in Iraq.
We should point to these facts instead of always falling on the defensive as if we are prime suspects in nuclear wrongdoing. Nuclear disarmament will become a reality only when all stockpiles are destroyed.
THE SWAT CATASTROPHE - COULD THERE BE ANOTHER WAY?"Reduce the size of the problem before tackling it" is an old business management dictum. We appear to be completely ignoring it in our "war on extremism" and are now fully embroiled in a conflict which might develop into a medium- or long-term war of attrition.
While there can be no doubt about the army's capability to "establish its writ" in the area, one wonders if there could be a way of handling the situation while would preclude a potentially dangerous aftermath. There can be no two opinions about the need to put down lawlessness.
However, how much wiser it would have been to first isolate the lawless elements and then move decisively against them. It is difficult to believe that people of the area are all extremists. But the desire for enforcement of Sharia Law in the area in place of the Frontier Crime Regulation of the British era has almost universal support in the region and it is this sentiment that the extremists may be trying to cash on.
Those demanding enforcement of the Sharia law are not talking in air and refer to long standing Government commitments dating back to the time Benazir was PM. The authorities are silent on this matter and there is total lack of any reference to it in statements issued in this respect.
If the Government were seen as responsive to this popular demand, or at least sat down to discuss it with the local people, the extremists would be immediately isolated and violence and strife will stop.
A very late but nevertheless welcome development by the authorities is the start of FM transmission of their own, based on Islamic teachings towards the end of the month. Let us hope this is not mere eyewash and more steps will follow in this direction.
If on the other hand, brute indiscriminate force is used (firing missiles from above, for instance) it will cause many civilian deaths, increase ill-will and allow terrorists to masquerade as candidates for martyrdom. Driven underground, the forces of resentment will have full play in the form of suicide attacks and sabotage actions.
We have learnt no lessons from the aftermath of the killing of Akbar Bugti, it seems. Hardly a week passes in which vital fuel gas pipes or power pylons are not blown up in Balochistan. The recent killing of Balach Marri (whoever did it) and the disturbances that followed are a grim reminder of how fragile the situation is in half the country. Sincerity and statesmanship will solve the problem, brute force will not.
BB TORN BETWEEN VALOR AND DISCRETION!Over the best part of two years what looked like a possible power sharing arrangement between the General and BB, painstakingly put together by America breathing down the necks of both, fell apart soon after BB's return to the country as she got into a strident mood and made a gigantic leap (from her original strategic stance that she would accept Musharraf sans uniform and would even be part of his Government) to a new one under which Musharraf was not acceptable even out of uniform.
For a time BB's statements reflected populist sentiment in demanding end to emergency, release of prisoners and even (surprise, surprise) restoration of the Supreme Court to its 3 November position.
However, less is now heard from her about this last, once it became clear that America is cool to this particular popular demand. General Musharraf has apparently been able to convince the American Government that the role of the Supreme Court in releasing "terrorist" suspects was leading to increase in terrorist activity.
Also, restoration of the Judiciary to its 3 November position could make it impossible for Musharraf to continue to wield power in any capacity. Waves of American functionaries have descended on Islamabad to salvage the deal which will prop Musharraf out of uniform with a semblance of political support. Emboldened by the weakening position of President Musharraf, BB is out to extract maximum possible political mileage for herself.
However she has to tread a fine line between valor (ambitions for Prime-Ministership) and discretion (corruption cases). Towards the very end of the month, BB once again changed her stance, obviously under American persuasion and declared that working with Mr Musharraf sans uniform was possible. At the very end of the month there was news of fresh talks between BB and Musharraf. BB may try to wrest some more concessions from a President who appears to be struggling to survive.
STUDENT ACTIVISM FALTERS WITH A SERIOUS HICCOUGH Almost unnoticed a student movement for democracy, judicial independence and against army's involvement in politics was burgeoning in the Punjab University which had the potential to spread through to all educational institutions. Only a day earlier the Government of Punjab made known its intention of doing something about it.
The main force in the University behind the movement was Islami Jamiate Talaba but many other groups were participating on a student platform and the protests were run anonymously. An incident in early November had the effect of subverting the movement at least in the short term.
It all started with Imran Khan, the Tehrike Insaf leader (in hiding from warrants for his arrest after imposition of the emergency by General Musharraf) planning to make a dramatic appearance at the University with the intention of leading a student rally outside the University campus and thus offer himself for arrest after making a point.
The Jamiat, it is said, wanted to keep this a student movement only without involvement of any political figure in it. Other students, presumably belonging to the student wing of Tehrike Insaf invited Imran Khan to come and this, the Tehrike Insaf claimed, was cleared with Jamaate Islami whose offshoot despite its independence stance, Jamiat is.
There was perhaps a serious failure of communication along the line or the Jamaat may have over estimated its influence over the fellow-travelling student body. Since Imran's plans were no secret, there was a sizable presence of security men in plain clothes on hand in the University to nab the outspoken leader.
They may have also contributed to some extent to what followed. Nevertheless the fact that the Jamiat leader of the University was forced to resign and over a dozen activists of the Jamiat were thrown out of the student party, indicated admission of wrongdoing by at least some of its activists.
Whether this is enough to restore relations between Jamaate Islami and Tehrike Insaf to the former warm level, remains to be seen. For now, the student movement has received a serious setback much to the satisfaction of the authorities.
RETURN OF THE NATIVE - THIRD TIME LUCKY? Following a visit by President Musharraf to Saudi Arabia and his meeting with King Abdul Aziz, the way was cleared for return to Pakistan of Nawaz Sharif after 7 years abroad and two abortive returns. Musharraf is tight-lipped and Nawaz Sharif denies there was any deal. Musharraf had said all along that Nawaz Sharif could return after the elections.
The ex-PM is here but has decided (with parties in APDM) not to participate in the elections. So every one should be happy! Saudis have got out of a continuously embarrassing situation, Musharraf gets his wish that Nawaz Sharif should not take part in the forthcoming elections and Nawaz Sharif is finally here to stay.
The nagging question is whether Nawaz Sharif committed to not taking part in the election as part of a deal. The ever ingenious Sheikh Rashid tells us that Nawaz Sharif knew that he would be disqualified if he attempted to participate in the elections. He is therefore making a virtue out of necessity by the boycott decision according to Sheikh Sahib.
MMA HEADING TOWARDS SPLIT? Friends and foes alike are watching with interest, as never before, the growing chasm between the two main parties in MMA. In the past, generally Maulana Fazl has been getting his way much to the chagrin of JI rank and file, but on the issue of participation in the impending controversial elections, matters may come to a head.
JUI is more firm on participating than perhaps any other opposition party, while JI, as part of APDM, has opted for boycott. Can MMA survive with one of its main components fighting the election and the other boycotting it?
Will MMA disappear or will there be two MMAs differentiated by suffixes? Some new alignments may appear with ML (N), JI and T. Insaf joining hands in one and JUI aligning at the seat adjustment level or deeper with PPP or ML (Q) or both. The picture may become clear only in early December.
THE NOT-TOO-HAPPY MONTH-END SCENARIO: Judiciary back on law of necessity, army busier than it has ever engaging militants in bloody skirmishes in the North-West, cases of sabotage in Balochistan continuing unabated, attack on agencies' personnel and army posts happened again, protests by lawyers, students and journalists gathering momentum, TV channels continuing to be under severe restrictions, President Musharraf announcing withdrawal of emergency and the PCO but not right now, parties participating in the elections gearing up for a short, controlled campaign, more things uncertain than certain. ([email protected])