What a difference a week makes. As the late November autumn chill began giving way to the approaching winter in the capital last week, President Pervez Musharraf looked set to be left out in the cold. The army general was forced to shed his uniform, set election dates and promise to lift a state of emergency to fend off domestic political opponents and his Western backers, at least for a little while.
He looked cornered and emotional, shedding tears at a November 28 ceremony to hand over command of armed forces to his deputy, General Ashfaq Kayani. Pundits predicted that, without the military to back him up, citizen leader Musharraf was now a paper tiger and his eight-year regime would eventually be shown the door by his former military commanders or emboldened opposition parties.
Not quite. This week has been one of the quietest of 2007 for Musharraf, who began a new five-year presidential term by hosting visiting Turkish President Abdullah Gul, a close ally, and receiving renewed backing from US President George W Bush, an even closer ally. The state of emergency he imposed on November 3 remains in place - though hardly noticed - judges who oppose him remain under house arrest, and the streets of major cities are empty.
"At the moment he is firm and he's not really threatened and he's secure in his position," said defence analyst Hasaan Askari Rizvi. Political opposition, meanwhile, looks more like the paper tiger. Opposition figures Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, who both recently returned from exile to challenge Musharraf, have joined forces and are threatening to boycott elections scheduled for January 8. But their threats ring hollow considering they both have begun campaigning across the country.
An alliance of some 35 opposition parties, led by Pakistan People's Party and Nawaz's Pakistan Muslim League-N, are finalising a list of demands that Musharraf must meet to avoid a mass boycott of the elections that could plunge nuclear-armed Pakistan back into political chaos.
While their demands - the appointment of a new caretaker government and election commission before the polls, ending emergency measures and reinstating the constitution - are reasonable considering the political situation.
However, Musharraf has no need to make concessions given his current hand.
If the opposition does boycott, analysts said, their only remaining card would be to attempt to oust Musharraf in a "people power" street movement similar to the Philippines and Indonesia and hope the military backs them - which also seems unlikely right now.
"I think the boycott options is not a serious option anymore," said political analyst Ayaz Amir. "At the moment, there's no sign of a (street) movement. It won't be affective. It will play into the regime's hands."
The opposition has no international backing for a boycott. The Bush administration appears satisfied that Musharraf retired from the military and set an election date, and its ambassador to Pakistan, Anne W Patterson, said Monday that "the US government's position is that all parties should participate in the elections."
Benazir and Nawaz may have little alternative but to drop their pre-election demands, offer a mea culpa and participate in the polls, even though they claim that "massive rigging" is already underway to ensure that Musharraf's political backers, led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q), win a majority in parliament.
"These are genuine demands," Amir said. "The government is throwing in everything at its disposal" to win. If the claims of vote rigging prove true on January 8, the country could again erupt in street protests against Musharraf, and it remains to be seen whether his generals will back him this time.
"Things will slip very quickly if something goes wrong with the elections. Much depends on if they are credible," Rizvi said. Not just for Musharraf, but for the Bush administration, which continues to back a leader who has not yet won his high-stakes card game.
Comments
Comments are closed.