Pakistan's political crisis has left in limbo efforts to find a solution to the decades-old dispute over Kashmir with arch rival India, analysts and politicians say. Peace talks which started in 2004 are officially continuing but with turmoil in Islamabad all hopes of a short-term breakthrough have been abandoned.
The tumult in Pakistan is "a temporary setback to the peace process," said Noor Ahmed Baba, head of the political science department at Kashmir University in occupied Srinagar. "The peace process has been disrupted by the developments but once things stabilise there both countries will resume the process," Baba said, calling the drive "irreversible."
However, Pakistan's political churning has come at an unfortunate moment for talks between the neighbours who have fought three wars, two over Kashmir which they both claim in full, South Asia expert Prem Shankar Jha said.
Special envoys appointed by both sides for back-channel talks had arrived at a "five-point agreement" outlining the contours of a settlement over Kashmir, Jha wrote in leading Indian news magazine Outlook.
The agreement "contained a framework for joint management of common issues like water, power, communications and defence," with the de facto Line of Control border dividing Kashmir into Indian- and Pakistani-administered regions "progressively softened," he said.
Though the formula was ready to be unveiled in March-April, both governments decided to keep the agreement secret, preferring to wait for a more "propitious" moment that never came, Jha said. "Today, Kashmir is the last and most expendable thing on Pakistani leaders' minds," he noted. An Indian official confirmed that "the five-point formula had been agreed.
But "it was kept away from public eye due because of reservations expressed by some sections" within the Indian government, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. New Delhi has kept a close eye on events in Pakistan - the return of former prime ministers Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto from exile and President Pervez Musharraf's declaration of a state of emergency.
Though New Delhi has been careful not to be seen as backing one or other of the key players in Pakistan, opinion in Muslim-majority Indian held Kashmir is firmly behind Musharraf where he is seen as "a man of peace."
"Musharraf's presence helped improve relations between India and Pakistan," said ex-Kashmir chief minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, whose regional People's Democratic Party is part of the ruling Congress-led coalition in New Delhi. Musharraf is credited with supporting a slew of measures to stabilise the fragile ties between India and Pakistan.
However, Pakistan's troubles have meant that Musharraf has had no time to pay attention to the peace process between the neighbours. "Events in Pakistan have set back the peace process and put Kashmir on il there's some normalcy in Pakistan, parleys must wait." Musharraf "seemed very sincere in ending this mad conflict but now his very survival is in question," he added.
Violence has eased since India and Pakistan began the peace talks. But more than 42,000 people have been killed in the insurgency, officials say, while human rights groups estimate the deaths at 60,000 with 10,000 missing.
"Musharraf used to take a personal interest in the talks but now he himself is in trouble trying to save his own job," said Tahir Mohiudin, editor of the leading Urdu weekly in Kashmir called "Chattan" or "The Rock."
Moderate Kashmiri separatist leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq said "only a stable Pakistan can have a serious dialogue with India over Kashmir. "Presently it seems the dialogue process is on hold."
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