South African President Thabo Mbeki could face a stinging defeat in party leadership elections this month, leaving him isolated and ineffective during his last two years in power. The successor to Nelson Mandela has seen his standing in the ruling African National Congress dive since taking over as party chief in 1997 and as president of the country two years later.
Rank-and-file members are now lining up behind his former deputy, Jacob Zuma, ahead of a December 16-20 party congress. The ANC's electoral dominance virtually guarantees that Zuma, if elected, would become the nation's next leader.
Mbeki, who must leave the state presidency in 2009, is seeking a third term as ANC leader, which would ensure he remains a strong politician with influence over his successor.
A victorious Zuma, however, could take aim at the lame duck Mbeki, demanding a say in government policy ahead of the 2009 general election, or even forcing early elections through a no-confidence vote in the ANC-dominated parliament. "Mbeki has not lost, but the signs of desperation are there," said Sipho Seepe, a political analyst and Mbeki critic. "The bigger issue now is whether he should be allowed to lead the country if he loses."
Some obervers fear Zuma, who has broad support from trade unions, communists and the country's poor, would promote a policy shift to the left, relaxing fiscal discipline and boosting social spending. But Zuma has been at pains to reassure investors and voters there would be no major policy changes.
For many voters, the ANC election is more about personality than policies. Mbeki fired Zuma amid a corruption scandal in 2005, and now the two rivals are the only candidates for the ANC presidency. While some South Africans see Mbeki as aloof, autocratic and too close to business, Zuma is popular among grass-roots activists and has tapped into anti-Mbeki discontent to build a commanding lead for the top ANC job. A majority of ANC branches in five of the nation's nine provinces have nominated him. Despite political scandals including an ongoing corruption case against him and a rape trial that ended in acquittal in 2006, 65-year-old Zuma has also been endorsed by key ANC groups.
While conceding that Mbeki, 65, would be weakened by a defeat, others say it is too early to write the political obituary of a man who has consistently outwitted rivals. The son of legendary anti-apartheid activist Govan Mbeki, Mbeki was first seen as presidential timber after he returned from exile in 1990. As a key member of the ANC team that negotiated the end of white minority rule, he helped pave the way for democratic elections and the ANC's rise to power.
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