MMA in disarray before elections

Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal rode a wave of anti-US feeling to stunning election success five years ago, but plagued by division, it has lost support and looks set to suffer in a January vote. The six-party alliance capitalised on anger over the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan to sweep to power in NWFP and become a coalition partner in Balochistan province in 2002 polls.
The alliance, some of whose members support Taliban, also became a bloc in the National Assembly by winning 59 seats in the 342-seat house, showed their best. But people on the streets of Peshawar, said the alliance had failed to deliver. The province and tribal areas on the Afghan border are where the military is fighting al Qaeda and the Taliban. Hundreds of people have been killed this year in bomb attacks and clashes.
But bread and butter issues like unemployment have outweighed the issue of the violent insurgency. Moreover, the alliance has now split over whether to boycott the January election. Meanwhile, the Jamiat-e-ulema-e-Islam (JUI), is taking part in the election. It argued a boycott would only allow Musharraf to fill parliament with his allies.
The smaller but better organised Jamaat-e-Islami is boycotting, saying that participating in the election would give legitimacy to Musharraf's declaration of emergency and suspension of the constitution on November 3. A recent poll by the US-based International Republican Institute showed the MMA winning only 3 percent of the vote.
"There's big disappointment with the MMA. They could not deliver on the promises they made," said Rahimullah Yusufzai, a veteran newspaper editor and Peshawar based analyst. The rise of the MMA in 2002 was also partly attributed to the absence of popular politicians including Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif.
Nawaz was close to religious conservatives during his two terms as premier in the 1990s and is likely to pick up a big chunk of conservative votes this time, analysts say. Nawaz, unlike Benazir, has not been raising the bogey of Islamic extremism in his party's campaign. However, it was unlikely that any party would win a landslide in the NWFP or Balochistan. They may become part of a coalition, according to Yusufzai.