Thai business leaders hold out little hope that upcoming elections will revive the nation's economy, weighed down as it is by two years of political turmoil and a series of policy blunders.
Many business leaders had hoped that the December 23 election, the first since last year's coup, would usher in a more coherent economic policy and chart the course for a nation that is growing more slowly than most of its neighbours in Southeast Asia.
Since the military ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in September 2006, consumer confidence has been mired at five-year lows while domestic investment and consumption have been sluggish.
The army-backed government only worsened business sentiment by imposing, and then largely revoking, tough foreign currency controls while proposing stiff limits on foreign investments, analysts say.
If a new government arrives with a strong mandate and clear policies, the economy would reap immediate benefits, said Peter van Haren, chairman of the Joint Foreign Chamber of Commerce in Thailand.
"If the new government acts quickly, it will give an immediate boost to the economy. Hopefully, confidence will easily come back after we have an election and achieve stability," he told AFP.
But few believe that's a likely outcome of the elections. The two main contenders at the polls are the People Power Party made up of Thaksin's allies, and Thailand's oldest political outfit, the Democrat Party.
Neither is expected to secure a clear majority, which many business leaders fear means the nation, which also endured 12 months of political turmoil ahead of the coup, will be run by a coalition too weak to thrash out strong policies.
"I don't really expect any significant boost for the Thai economy from the new government. It will definitely be formed as a coalition, making it indecisive and likely to be in office for only one or two years," said Pornsilp Patcharintanakul, deputy chief of Thailand's Board of Trade.
"With oil prices and a strong baht, that would harm exports while there's a potential global economic slowdown. I expect the economy to grow by a maximum of 4.5 percent next year," he told AFP.
Exports account for more than 60 percent of Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP), but even with strong export growth this year, the economy is expected to grow by only 4.5 percent-among the lowest rates in Southeast Asia. The World Bank sees growth next year at 4.6 percent, while the Thai government's think-tank projects growth of up to five percent.
Amid expectations for weaker exports next year, some Thai businessmen are pessimistic about the economic outlook.
"With unfavourable external factors led by high oil prices and world inflation, continuing instability in domestic politics could put the Thai economy at risk," said Twatchai Yongkittikul, secretary general of the Thai Bankers' Association.
"We are not sure how much the new coalition government will be able to unify their economic policies. This is worrisome," Twatchai told AFP. All the main parties are promising to boost spending on populist programmes that would scrap school fees, subsidise utility bills, boost farm aid and increase spending on infrastructure.
Jean-Pierre Verbiest, country director for the Asian Development Bank, said that while all the parties are proposing some populist measures, the coalition partners in a new government may not agree on how to implement their policies.
"If it's a weak coalition with people going in and out of government, then decision-making is going to get very complicated and negatively impact growth," he said.
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