Scant supply

The annual ritual of blames and claims over energy shortages has started again with cuts in gas supply to the industrial sector and the announcement by the Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco) of 90-minute load-shedding every day.
As per the routine, gas supplies to industrial units in the major production sectors of textile, cement and fertilisers have been stopped in order to facilitate domestic consumers. Gas companies' officials say that since the stoppage is part of a well-known schedule, no one should complain about it.
But not everyone concerned is willing to accept the pain without complaining. The other day a representative of the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma) fired a slew of complaints and demands in the direction of the government, asking for a number of concessions.
These include financial compensation to industrial units to cover the losses caused by the suspension in gas supply; payment for air shipment of goods as well as compensation claims by the buyers, if any, in the event an exporter missing a deadline due to energy interruptions; and recompense for machinery damage caused by fluctuations in supply.
Aptma also wants Wapda not to collect maximum demand indicator charges in the November through February period. This wish list may look excessive but it is indicative of the frustration that the industry faces.
Meanwhile, Pepco is confronted by an electricity deficit of 1,500 MW partly because of gas supply suspension to gas-fired power generation plants and partly because hydel generation has dropped significantly due to reduction in water releases from Tarbela, which, say Pepco officials, also affects the Ghazi-Barotha Hydro Power Project.
They warn that things might worsen in view of the fact that, pressed by the provinces, Irsa further reduced, without any prior notice on Wednesday, water releases from the Tarbela Dam. Pepco was banking on the commissioning of two independent power producers - Rouche and AES (Pak-Gen) - by December 20, to stabilise its position before the scheduled water release reductions took effect. Hopefully, the two IPPs will come on line before the situation takes a turn for the worse.
The challenge now is how best to cope with the gas shortages this year and in the next few years. At least three things merit urgent and effective action. First, the industrial as well as power sector must have precise and advance knowledge of the supply suspension schedules so as to make the necessary alternative arrangements.
Second, awareness needs to be created among domestic consumers about the importance of acting in a spirit of cooperation so as to lighten the load on the supply system. It is good to note that the gas companies have already started such a campaign through the media, telling domestic consumers when to use gas only for cooking, or the hours when the heaters must remain switched off, and the geyser thermostats either on 'warm' or 'off' setting. Cooperation from the public surely can ease the situation considerably.
The third thing to do is to undertake longer-term measures towards ensured supplies. Unfortunately, the policy so far has been characterised by rank short-sightedness. For example, when the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project was first mooted more than a decade ago, and for several years that followed, Islamabad exhibited more interest in collecting a fat royalty on the pipeline than what it was to carry.
The initial plan was to take out only a small amount near Multan and let the rest flow onwards into India. With shortages in sight, we now want to construct the pipeline despite a strong possibility of India opting out of it. It is about time we learnt from our past lapses. We must take a hard look on our industrial as well as domestic sectors' fast growing energy needs to plan and act accordingly.