Russian grain trade sees January wheat export ban

The grain market expects the Russian government to slap a ban on wheat exports in January, containing the rise of export prices last week, analysts said. "In spite of rising world prices, Russian wheat export forward prices rose slightly to $340 per tonne for December, and to $345 per tonne for January delivery," said the independent Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR).
"We consider the introduction of the wheat export ban from second part of January as highly possible," it said. SovEcon agricultural analysts said demand from exporters, which are waiting for the ban, was low and bid prices for fourth-grade wheat, the country's main cereal, were 6,700-7,100 roubles ($273.5-$289.8) per tonne (CPT shallow and deep-water ports).
But it said domestic cereals prices rose slightly, possibly on demand from Russian processors, who have started accumulating stocks ahead of the New Year holidays. Wheat prices rose by 100-150 roubles per tonne, milling rye by 75 roubles, while wheat of both third and fourth grade rose by an average of 25 roubles per tonne, SovEcon said.
Feed maize prices fell on low demand and traders expect a further decline as cheaper substitutes are available, it said. The government has said it may stop wheat exports after their volumes exceed 12.5 million tonnes from the start of the season at July 1. IKAR said seasonal grain exports have reached 10.7 million tonnes already.
SUNSEEDS DOWN: Sunseeds purchase prices decreased to $640 per tonne last week following a shift in the purchase strategy by a major domestic crusher, IKAR said. Other domestic processors followed suit, cutting prices by 1,000 or even more roubles per tonne, SovEcon said. It said crude sunoil prices rose by an average of 800 roubles per tonne.
"Average crude sunoil price amounted to $1,500-$1,515 per tonne. The export market remains thin, current oil demand prices for January delivery range between $1,290 and $1,300 per tonne," IKAR said.
SUGAR EASES: Last week, sugar prices eased to $573 per tonne. As a result of a surge of exports ahead of high seasonal import tariff, Russia may have an increase in stocks by the end of 2007 calendar year of 600,000 tonnes against the same date last year, IKAR said.