China's main stock index fell on Friday as banks and property shares slipped, but it ended this year with a gain of 97 percent, making China one of the world's best-performing markets for a second straight year.
The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.89 percent on the day to 5,261.563 points, leaving it 14 percent below an all-time high hit in October. In 2006, the index soared 130 percent.
After a tumultuous year in which stocks swung wildly and many reached valuations several times as expensive as foreign equities, investors expect the Chinese market to rise much more slowly in 2008.
Corporate profit growth is expected to slow, perhaps to 25-30 percent next year from an estimated 50-60 percent in 2007, as monetary policy tightens further and companies make smaller profits in the stock market.
Problems in the global economy, especially the credit squeeze in the United States, may also hurt China.
But most analysts think the Chinese market has a good chance of hitting fresh record highs next year, aided by the country's economic boom and corporate restructuring which often involves injections of assets into listed firms by their state parents.
"The uncertainty of global economics and politics is making investors cautious now, but the index may be strong in January and the outlook for next year is not bad," said Zhang Yanbing, analyst at Zheshang Securities.
Investors were encouraged this week by a bullish technical signal. The index broke above its early December high of 5,209.705 points, triggering a double bottom that suggested it had established a floor at the November and December lows. The pattern points up above 5,600 in coming weeks. Losing Shanghai stocks outnumbered gainers by 534 to 336 on Friday but turnover in Shanghai A shares stayed active at 133.2 billion yuan ($18.2 billion) against Thursday's six-week high of 146.3billion.
Chinese authorities moved to cool the stock market's worst speculative excesses this year. Worried by inflation, which hit an 11-year high in November, they may continue to try to cool asset prices next year, especially in the real estate market. Banks are being told more sternly to restrain lending growth.
Comments
Comments are closed.