Even if Pakistan had held elections on time instead of delaying them in the wake of the chaos unleashed by Benazir Bhutto's killing, President Pervez Musharraf was set to lose, analysts say.
Had election officials heeded calls by the opposition and the world community to proceed with the January 8 polls, Bhutto's party and others could have ridden a wave of grief over her death, they say.
But the postponement of the vote for nearly six weeks until February 18 has put its credibility in doubt, with Musharraf's opponents alleging the move is designed to buy time to rig the electoral process. Analysts say that key US ally Musharraf was damned if the polls went ahead and his backers lost - a move that could have left him open to a no-confidence vote in parliament - and damned if they were held up.
Far from convincing a sceptical public that the security situation needed stabilising after riots that left nearly 60 people dead, the decision has reinforced the perception that the vote could end up a farce, they say. "The decision to postpone is a sign of weakness and the elections will not be viewed as credible," Najam Sethi, editor, Daily Times told AFP.
"It was taken in disregard of the opinion of the opposition and was based on the recommendation of bureaucrats who owe their allegiance to the former government," he said. "It is clear that they had already made up their mind and were just looking for an excuse. He acknowledges the fact that his party has lost - this is not about law and order."
President Musharraf said in a televised address to the nation on Wednesday that rioters who caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage had destroyed voting offices and burned electoral rolls in several areas of the country. "The postponement was unavoidable and the decision by the Election Commission is correct," the President said.
The parties of Bhutto and ex-premier Nawaz Sharif said they would take part but condemned the delay - with a Bhutto aide saying she was going to reveal evidence of rigging plans involving election officials hours before her death.
Public scepticism over government explanations for Bhutto's death, coupled with allegations by her supporters of government involvement, meant that Musharraf's justifications were likely to fall on deaf ears, analysts say.
"I do believe there was a problem with security in several places, but no one believes them," analyst and newspaper columnist Shafqat Mahmood told AFP. "People think he is trying to help his allies. No one believes the government - even if they tell you the truth, people will say they are lying. It is very largely because of the presence of this man Musharraf."
Analysts said that in spite of the President's arguments and his announcement that the army and paramilitary troops would be deployed during the vote, the postponement was likely to cause more insecurity. Citing the burning of election offices as a reason for delaying the vote "sets a good precedent for troublemakers to destroy a couple of offices close to February 18 and get another postponement," said analyst Hasan Askari, former head of political science at Punjab University.
Such instability, analysts say, is the last thing the nuclear-armed nation needs after a year of political turmoil, and it is a potentially deadly blow for Musharraf's hopes of maintaining his nine-year grip on power.
Musharraf appears to have been weakened by resigning the post of army chief that he held when he seized power in a coup in 1999 until November last year, when he quit the position under immense domestic and international pressure. The opposition was also brought together because it realised that Musharraf benefited when they fought each other, Askari said.
Rasul Baksh Rais, a political scientist at the Lahore School of Management Sciences, said Musharraf was "isolated and in a very difficult situation he does not know how to come out of." "It should be quite obvious that the elections have been postponed because allies of Musharraf are politically finished. They wanted more time to revive the party in the face of sympathy for (Bhutto's party)," he said.
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