President Pervez Musharraf faces a no-win situation in Monday's elections, but his loss could be the world's gain in the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban, analysts said. The opposition has pledged mass protests if Musharraf's allies win the polls while if his enemies seize control of parliament, the key US ally in the 'war on terror' faces impeachment.
Yet with Western officials looking beyond Musharraf to his replacement as army chief when it comes to security matters, fears that nuclear-armed Pakistan would be worse off without him could be unfounded.
"Musharraf is in a no-win situation," political analyst and columnist Shafqat Mahmood told AFP. "But his ouster would not affect the war on terror, it might even be strengthened. A legitimate government will have popular support in the war on terrorism, which you do not have with Musharraf sitting there," he said.
Musharraf stood down as chief of 600,000-strong army in November, shortly after imposing a state of emergency and sacking the judiciary to push through his contested re-election as president.
The army has shown no sign of open dissent against its former leader, but new military supremo Ashfaq Kayani has reversed Musharraf's policy of involving the military in politics by withdrawing officers from civilian roles.
The taciturn, chain-smoking Kayani is widely respected in Western circles and is seen as a safe bet to pursue country's difficult campaign against al Qaeda and Taliban militants.
Terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna, the author of "Inside al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror", said there was no likelihood of any rollback in Pakistan's commitment.
"Whosoever comes to power, Pakistan's military and intelligence community will play the lead role in fighting terrorism," Gunaratna, head of the Singapore-based International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, told AFP.
"Musharraf is the architect of Pakistan's policy in fighting terrorism and extremism but this fight will continue even if he is not in power, because it is the biggest threat the country faces today," he said.
Musharraf's own political future is far less certain. Monday's vote is not a presidential election, but analysts say it will serve as a referendum on a leader a series of surveys show is more unpopular than ever.
Pollsters meanwhile say the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, which backed him in his last term in office, is trailing in third place behind Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the party of former premier Nawaz Sharif.
A low turnout - helped by fears of suicide bombings like one that killed 47 people at an election rally on Saturday - combined with Pakistan's feudalised political system could still help the PML-Q cross the line.
But if they win, Musharraf will still be in trouble, said Hasan Askari, a political analyst, who is currently teaching at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington DC.
"If there is a perception that his government has stolen the election, the opposition is expected to challenge him in the streets," Askari told AFP.
"In case the opposition gets enough seats to set up the government, it is expected to restrict Musharraf's powers and, if possible, remove him altogether."
Musharraf has one card up his sleeve because, as president, he has the power to dissolve parliament if it becomes troublesome. Soothing noises from Bhutto's widower, Asif Ali Zardari, have led to widespread speculation that he could work together with Musharraf in a possible coalition.
But Musharraf would have to compromise with any hostile parliament to preserve his position, weakening his already shaky position, analysts said.
"One thing is very clear - even if Musharraf can survive he will be marginalised. It will be a gradual removal from the scene, if not immediately," said Rasul Baksh Rais, a political scientist at Lahore University of Management Sciences. "He will be head of the state but he would not be calling the shots. And he may not be controlling the security forces, they will be under the prime minister."
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