Marginal increase in ready business noted, spot rate rises by Rs 75 at Rs 3175

Trading in cotton sustained low going even after nation saw post-election peace and amity among the winners, the trading in New York was also suspended due to President's Day on Monday. However, the spot rate was put at Rs 3175 on the last day of the week on Feb23, 2008.
WORLD SCENARIO:
The futures trend was not reported as Monday was a holiday in America being the Presidents Day. However, the second session saw sort of panic buying and surge in futures values due to reported commodities soaring in Chicago trading. The pent up buying also had its share as Monday was holiday.
Analysts commenting on the Tuesday's scenario said cotton's next move would depend on what happens in other commodity markets. They, however, also attached importance to presentation at the annual outlook meeting of the USDA shortly. They said switch activity was also a feature in trading as investors get out of position in the spot contract before first notice day for deliveries next week. The first available futures value was as follows: March rose 0.62 cent to 69.44 cents a pound and May rose 1.40 to 71.80 cents a pound.
On Wednesday rising tempo sustained on the NYCE trading as speculators entered market for buying late towards the end of closing. Markets players expressed that December is the new-crop contract. Corn and soyabean crops, they hoped are widely expected to take a significant amount of acres away from cotton. However, they also saw March cotton contracts at 70.79 and 72.60 cents with support at 67.75 and 66.50 cents.
Third consecutive day rise in futures was seen on Thursday flood of technical buying by speculators and fund pushing contracts to 4-year high. The players analysed the trend also to the nearly all week days rally in commodities. They said the market felt support from both Wednesday's technical break out and from strong outside market, assumingly commodities.
On Friday cotton futures values were at four-year high for yet another day boosted by speculative buying supported thoroughly by sharp rise in weekly export sales and increased shipments noted of 225,200 RBs. The closing March future surged by 3.39 cent at 75.62 cents and May soared to 75.81 cents a pound.
LOCAL TRADING:
The election intervened in trading leading to suspension in cotton market activity on Monday. However, market did open following day as polling ended up to satisfaction of the people. But even second day of the week saw sellers and others greeting each other. The spot rate was left unchanged at Rs 3100 as sellers were watchful how cotton was faring elsewhere in the world to determine line of action.
However the comparatively better day on polls day and following day had encouraged them to get ready for smart trading on Wednesday. However, cotton prices internationally have again been raising. But needs remain. The spot rate was maintained at Rs 3100 while only one lot changed hands at Rs 3300 and phutti prices ruled between Rs 1300 and Rs 1400. The traders and experts reluctantly and undertone said the up-coming government policy is under their watch. They noted textile exports might suffer 14 pc fall.
On Thursday-cotton sellers and buyers having set their mind to dead the market signalled it was coming back to usual self. Nearly 5000 bales of cotton changed hands first time in the post poll session. Spot rate remained stuck at Rs 3100 while lint rate ruled between Rs 3075 and Rs 3300. The world rates seemingly are holding firmly the cotton market in Pakistan.
On Friday cotton consumers had reason to hold on as the sellers finally came out of pressure and raised spot rate sharply by Rs 50 to Rs 3150 per maund. The spinners and textile millers altered their attitude and re-planned buying. Highest number of bales changed hands first time trading began after election melee. Some 6500 bales changed hands around at Rs 3400. Phutti both in Sindh and Punjab ruled at Rs 1300-1400. On Saturday spot rate was eaised by amother Rs25 to Rs 3175.Some 4000 baled changed hand at overnight price level.
20 EU STATES OPPOSE WTO FARM PLAN:
The wealth in Northern hemisphere has become too heavy to carry on shoulders, becoming more and more apparent owing to spread of the Western style terrorism, while the West realises that piece-meal efforts to provide charity wont serve the purpose. This menace, as they consider so, could be tackled by something looking philanthropic such as WTO, and they will be safe, Besides, the members will exploit the situation for bulk investment without being called un-philanthropic.
But global trading system, as it gives the scent to make the world poor face miseries, is not appealing to those it is being offered to.
The two big brothers, nearly founder as they were instrumental in giving birth to League of Nations and UNO, and have plunged head on into groping the gain and loss and now are at logger-heads. The poor are like passive onlookers opening mouth only when they are pressed. Brazil and India are being pressurised to look into the gains in terms of billions of dollars, but they have so far been wary to leave the battle ground for the big brothers.
Under intense pressure the EU's Trade Commissioner Peter Mendelson was willing to consider with good intention, but under threat from France which had to lose bigger slice in case subsidy cut was further effected. The WTO members are expected to make yet another bid to reach a deal in March / April. If the bid fails, all know that Doha round, launched in 2001 risks further year to delay or out right collapse, as the US heads, in to presidential polls in November 2008, followed by start of a new administration known for being hostile to any regional and world scale deals at slightest risk or loss.
The Third World is aghast at the slow pace of development and making it more and more confused and practically on the verge of parting with than it will gain in case of a hasty deal.
FOR DOING UNDONE JOB:
By the time this review will come in the press, elections would be over. By and large the election campaigning seems to have been quite. If all goes well, which is likely as government is resolved not to allow spreading disturbances, the following ideas may give some wisdom to start or expedite process of a textile laboratory in Faisalabad, garment institute exclusively for the women and one window facility for provision of required infrastructure ,standardisation of machines and equipments..
It is bad luck for Pakistanis that elections generated too many, promises during elections which hardly see the dawn of even beginning rather than a successful and fruitful completion. Actually non-serious candidates take pride in making negative predictions and one way or the other, hold voters or circumstances unfavourable to fail the agenda given to the millions who have learnt to help win the candidates who turn back the moment power comes to them.
It is hoped perception to give people textile town, textile cities, garment institute for women and training institutes in large numbers will spring up to produce trained and skilled people who waste their time on roaming about the periphery of industrial belts and offices. In the election melee, one very important resolve has been made to create a contamination free culture of cotton.
The cotton and textile industry have been in total disarray. The most cherished authorities seem to be happy to call a few meetings,, workshops and conferences of the stakeholders and discussing all related issues but fail when it comes to ensuring a better return for the cotton pickers and cotton ginners. Time and again making Pakistan a contamination free cotton culture had proved a wishful thinking. RESULT: a billion dollars loss annually is reported. Hope above powerful issues, which are fresh in minds of all, will achieve success finally.
BELATED THOUGH, WELCOME:
Right at the moment Pak mills need estimated 16 million bales of cotton and by 2015 authorities propose to enhances production to over 20 million bales. If the coming seasons yield matches the spinners and textile millers needs, the sector may survive as leading foreign exchange earners for Pakistan. The authorities have placed their fingers on the right problem - producing cotton free of contamination and disease.
The Minfal, according to report have started setting up institute to genetically improve cottonseed to give protection to cotton crop from viral attacks such as cotton leaf curl virus (CLCF) and mealy bug which have proved devastating at places for sometime past. If the institute will not be short of funds and experts it can genuinely be expected that another 50/60 lakh bales could be produced.
Unfortunately this is only available to textile millers and spinners at cheaper rate. The efforts however will have to be kept up for ensuring that players involved should take care of dirts that gets mixed un-intentionally or deliberately. This setback which is seen at 20 percent, has caused enormous loss ever since country took recourse to exporting cotton and cotton related products like yarn, greycloth readymade garments etc.
Estimated annual loss on this count alone is in the region of dollar one billion. If this short fall is made up with experts' efforts, a lot could be earned. Besides holding CLCV and mealy-bug mess in check, authorities should not allow usurping land said to be useful for cotton growing particularly in Rahimyar Khan. A recent report was emphatic on speaking ill about the practice by people with political or other clout.
Not to forget that yield per acre should be enhanced from 686 to 1060 kgs per acre. Today producing countries are growing 40 maund per acre or more than double. The authorities think Rs 393 million investment in five years on improving measures to protect cotton crop from the above named viral attacks is sufficient. However, the sources who are close observers of the development in this field, hear once through newspaper reports and then when attacks destroy the cotton crop hitting hard the target and failing to meet already received orders. It seems it should be reckoned what lapses happened in the past.
US GRAIN PRICES HIT COTTON:
Weather and grain are major factors leading to cotton sowing estimate down to below nine million acres by some against survey results by US national cotton council which had put sowing around 9.5 million acres. The 2008-09 season sowing is said to be the lowest in 25 years and less than 10.5 million acres sown last year.
Survey and traders report link surging soya and wheat prices to gradually shrinking interest in cotton. But corn, soya, wheat etc were celebrating boost in past year also without telling on cotton rate so prominently. Even today what is the guarantee that cotton will reach the booming old days when it earned 100 cents a pound or near about.
The exports for some reason may not be what is being contemplated by some, that the US Administration is utterly puzzled about WTO rules and call from all sides for a drastic cut in subsidies which kept US cotton afloat as the leader in the past, till very recently. Brazil, also a cotton growing country, as a leader of the Third World countries nearly dependent on cotton and cotton products registered complaint with the WTO reconciliation body which extended support.
Besides, grain prices reduced cotton sowing by 9.5 to nine million acres. Al nino weather also affects normal luxurious growth.
However, knowledgeable circles link subsidy setback and continued erosion in value of dollar. The subsidy to farmers affects particularly cotton/ cotton economy. Now receding dollar value has struck earning of poor countries and hit huge deposits in banks. The world today watches with fear and awe how it is going to weather the supposed recession.
TAIL PIECE:
Japan is taking care of unskilled labour in Pakistan to add to richness particularly textile sector facing horribly high cost of doing business. The Japanese experts had the credit to produce several batches in last few months. Similarly it was expected HTSPE, a consulting firm based in HK would announce after a workshop recently how it was going to be helpful in improving the quality of products, but nothing of this sort was announced. Instead it was simply announced that with some NGO's the firm stressed the need for Pak-EU business forum.
May be the EU, which had promptly stamped Pak textile products with unbearable dumping duty which has disabled Pak products to stand with regional rivals whose products are being facilitated and being welcomed. The West for some months past, the sources observing the development said, had been speaking about Pak role in fight against terrorism. The efforts by the exporters, ministers and even top executives were being made to secure leniency in blocking the exports of textile goods from Pakistan much to the vexation of exporters and the authorities heart.
It was quite late in laying finger on how the West was grudgingly linking the textile products from Pakistan and its rich contribution against war on terror. The sources quite reluctantly though, regretted that the consulting firm's seizing the opportunity when this country was head on plunged into 2008 election, considered in Pakistan to be very significant. Dropping from the blues of such stress with out offering any thing like lifting of dumping duty or any much sought investment accord came out of business forum.
Except that knowledgeable circles as well as related textile experts expressing a deep surprise had nothing material or substantial to offer. The review is likely to be in print when elections will be over and this nation will show maturity in the aftermath by leading people and country towards economic well being and prosperity.