The newly elected Prime Minister of Pakistan in his opening speech promised to give nation a new Port Keti Bunder along-with 100 days priority agenda. It is a welcome sign for all Pakistanis in particular for seafaring community and Maritime professionals.
Port Qasim was also conceived in the 70's and it is likely to turn into Industrial Hub Port by 2020.Whilst, Port Qasim is helping the nation but it is seriously effected by silting due to be in the proximity of Indus Delta and South West Monsoon. The annual maintenance dredging cost runs into 1 billion rupees to maintain 11.0 meter draft.
The plans are on way to deepen the port to 14 meter, costing about $140 million. Present annual dredging BOQ is 5 million cubic meter and when dredged further, it is estimated that annual maintenance dredging will be around 10 mill cu meter thus costing in excess of 2-3 billions rupees to maintain the desired depth.
When Port Qasim was conceived ie returning to old medieval site of Indus River Port Dewal, which was conquered by Mohammad in Qasim ( A History of Indus by J.C. Powell, A Voyage on Indus by Alexander Burnes 1831).
The initial planners and hydrographers at the time of conceiving the port faltered and could not rightly estimate the annual maintenance dredging quantum and cost which was far low comparing as of today's 5 per $ per cubic meter and cutter dredging cost of $20/- per cubic meter.
Furthermore channel is 40 km with sharp bends restricting night navigation, when compared to Karachi and Gwadar of 3.5 km, where vessel can berth/sail 24/7/365. Time is money for ships and ship owners of today and economy of scale is the key to profitability, thus deep drafts are required. Non availability of night navigation for deep draft and long channels are considered as dis-advantage in port planning.
It is presumed that planners of Keti Bunder must have studied the geological history of Indus Delta, coastal hydraulic survey, currents, littoral drift, hydraulic model studies, coastal geomorphology, Alexander Burnes surveys of river Indus and earthquake epic centre and geologic structure of indus basin whilst carrying out hydrographic survey, wave patterns, forming of breakers in monsoon and the coast being low and not discernable except at close quarters for the safety of navigation.
Whilst referring to Indus Delta Map Keti bunder is approachable via Hajamaro creek, which runs beyond Ghora Bari. Since no hydrographic and other studies are available which were carried out in last decade, it could be any body's guess that how much dredging will be required to meet today's generation vessels of 14/16 meter draft and thereafter quantum of annual maintenance dredging to maintain the channel.
It is presumed that a proper feasibility by competent hydragraphers and port consultants be carried out evaluating dredging and maintenance cost bearing in mind high cost at port Qasim. The other aspect to be borne in mind is excellent hinter land connectivity before port is built.
We must learn from the experience of Gwadar Port, which is handicapped due to non existent hinterland connectivity. It is imperative that hard core professionals having experience of Port development may be engaged and this assignment of national importance may not be left at the mercy of generalist having no track of maritime faculty.
We must also learn from the experience of dredging cost at Port Qasim and that of our neighbours ie India, Bangladesh and Thailand etc. The Hoogly river has silted Calcutta Port thus forcing development of new port of Haldia at the mouth of Hoogly, Bombay offshore port, Colombo south port, Chittagong offshore port at Juldia, so has been the case in Bangkok, where new Port has been developed at the mouth of the river to cater deep draft vessels of 4th and fifth generation.
The next generation vessels are post panamax needing 16/18 meter depth and futuristic vision is Suezmax, Malaca Max of 21 meter, thus in all probability a site which is prone to heavy siltation being in Indus Delta costing billions in dredging and thereafter incurring annual maintenance dredging cost of billions, may only be considered after hydrographic surveys and financial feasibility to cater deep draft vessels of future.
We, must have more ports to develop the region and to cater our futuristic needs. Port development is a science and all issues have to be addressed professionally to cater the futuristic development in the maritime industry.
India has 12 major ports and 185 small ports and they are investing $15 billion in port sector and $12 Billions in developing quadruple triangle ie logistics connecting all major city's to cater 1 billion tons of Impo/Expo by 2010.
It is a welcome announcement, however a proper latest feasibility be carried out bearing in mind that it may take 10 years to port be operational from the drawing board, thus ships calling after a decade and their specification be bench marked to make a success story for our future generation.
Since a policy statement has been made thus same must be duly supported with credible latest studies, thus it is expected that the democratic government will make all plans public and will consider the views of local expertise available in selection of site.
Needless to mention as per historical fact the Indus River had many ports in the past ie Patala, Debal, Lahori Bunder, Shah Bunder, Gharo, Keti Bunder, Vikar, Daragi and Bambhore, these ports were destroyed due to the ravages of Indus River or by the change of its course, thus we must learn from the history and a very scientific and cautious approach is recommended in selecting the site of new port.
Meantime, we must concentrate to make new commercial port Gwadur fully operational and optimum utilisation of Karachi and Port Qasim. It is equally important to do traffic fore casting and our needs for 25/50 years.
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