Energy - where?

The only thing that has attained higher priority over metros and motorways in the government’s current tenure, is power. Power generation to be precise, and the chest thumping that follow. A look at some numbers, and there are not many in the Economic Survey, tells that the most important industrial sub-sector – electricity generation and distribution, and gas distribution recorded a growth of just 3.4 percent in FY17.

And this is not even the worst part yet. Recall that the Ministry of Water and Power stopped giving details of daily power generation numbers, ever since the IMF programme ended. Of course, this was just a coincidence. This column has repeatedly raised voice over the matter, and that, obviously, fell on deaf ears.

Now read this. “..There was decline in generation as it remained 85,206 GW/h during July -March FY 2017 compared to 101,970 GW/h during July-March FY 2016.” Yes, the power generation in 2017 has declined by a massive 16 percent year-on-year. This is the largest year-on-year fall in power generation in recallable memory. All this, just one year away from, when the government is supposed to be running a power surplus in a load-shedding free country.

This surely has come as a surprise. It should not have. But that is what happens when you deprive researchers of important numbers. All this while, hot weather was primarily believed to be the core reason behind long load shedding hours. But this number tells, the story is a lot worse, and it would be no less than a miracle to even come close to eradicating load shedding come elections time.

Little wonder why the previously oft-quoted “10,400 MW” to be added on fast-track basis, does not get heard from Islamabad these days. Yes, the drop in power generation from hydel sources has contributed its bit, but the whole idea behind adding generation units left, right and centre was to decrease reliance on any one particular fuel source.

Even worse is the fact that the power generation mix, has worsened, let alone being maintained at yesteryear levels.

Yes, there have been improvements too. Recoveries have gone up and losses down. But that’s about it. The receivables have mounted to dangerous levels yet again, and this is in a low oil price scenario. The weighted average price with the entire imported fuel component to be priced in tariffs, would surely be on the higher side. That would be the real test of recoveries. The transmission system has more questions than answers at the moment, and like most CPEC things, there is little known on the progress front.

Talking of CPEC, the Economic Survey tells the importance of it for the energy sector. There is little denying that bit. But when you see $46 billion been quoted as the total financial outlay of CPEC, you wonder what is going on in the Finance Ministry.

It has been quite some time since we have been fed with numbers north of $55 billion for CPEC outlay. Mind you, media, especially foreign, would rely more on Economic Survey numbers than other reports. The likes of Ahsan Iqbal should not mind when someone raises doubts over the claims of CPEC being “the most transparent project in Pakistan’s history”.