The US dollar is likely to face more pressure next week in the aftermath of a jump in the US unemployment rate to its highest in more than 3-1/2 years, which stoked concerns about the US economy at a time of rising inflation.
While other US data earlier in the week, including surveys on the US services and manufacturing sectors, eased concerns about the US economy, the rise in the unemployment rate to 5.5 percent in May from 5.0 percent the prior month obliterated any optimism about economic stability.
"The jump in the unemployment rate was the catalyst to give dollar bears an excuse to sell the dollar," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon. "There should be nothing to get in the way of a further sell off in the dollar at this point." For the week, the euro gained 0.8 percent against the dollar, while the dollar gained 0.4 percent against the yen. The New York Board of Trade's US dollar index fell 0.2 percent.
The rise in the US unemployment rate came on the back of comments from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet on Thursday in which he signalled a rise in euro zone interest rates this year. His comments came after the ECB left rates unchanged at 4.0 percent, but he said some officials had argued for a rate hike later this year.
Higher rates in the euro zone relative to those in the United States would heighten the attractiveness of euro denominated assets and stoke demand for the euros to buy them. The euro rallied against the dollar on Thursday and extended those gains after the US jobless report.
"With Trichet's comments yesterday, it was a one-two blow," said Woolfolk. The dollar had surged earlier in the week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned on Tuesday the weak US currency posed a risk to inflation, adding to views the central bank could raise interest rates later this year.
Bernanke's warning, made during an address to a conference on monetary policy in Barcelona, Spain, was seen by some as the Fed's version of a "strong dollar policy," lending the dollar much needed support. By convention, the Treasury Department has been responsible for the dollar policy and made comments on the US currency, while the Federal Reserve has restricted itself to monetary policy and fighting inflation.
But "President Trichet has undermined the dollar-supportive elements of Chairman Bernanke's remarks," said Stephen Malyon, senior currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto in a research note to clients after both central bank chiefs had spoken.
Data scheduled for the week ahead includes pending home sales for April on Monday, which is expected to decline 0.6 percent from the prior month. International trade for April slated for release on Tuesday, forecast to show a $59.6 billion deficit, will be followed by the Federal Budget for May and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on Wednesday. Retail sales for May on Thursday are expected to show a rise of 0.4 percent.
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