No new government has been as unlucky, as the present dispensation. They have landed in thick soup and are splashing left and right to swim out of it. PPP-led coalition has accepted the responsibility with a not very enviable inheritance.
THE LIST OF PROBLEMS IS LONG, BUT THE MAIN AND IMMEDIATE MEGA PROBLEMS WHICH THEY HAVE TO SOLVE ARE FIVE:
1. The external and internal factors have led to economic slow-down; budget deficit has crossed the danger-line and the food inflation is at an all time high.
2. Legal fraternity is fighting with the executive for getting due space for judiciary.
3. The elected government has to snatch its constitutional rights from the President who has no respect for the constitution.
4. Insurgency in Balochistan, thanks to mishandling by the centre for the last six decades. The problem has further deteriorated after the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti.
5. And above all that the local and Afghan Taliban have taken over the North Western areas of the country. They have their own foreign policy objectives which are in sharp contradiction with what the people of Pakistan want. These Taliban leaders have openly declared that they do not accept the Durand Line and would continue participating in the Jihad against Karzai and NATO forces.
Problem 1: The critics of the government say that the new budget failed to address the serious fiscal and current account deficit issues. And not much was done for the poor by way of bringing down the food and fuel prices. Now this is being unfair. The irony is that they got less than 90 days to address the economic problems.
Yes both PPP and its other major coalition partner PML (N) should have been prepared with some original and innovative ideas when they walked into the government. In normal democratic societies opposition has an alternative policy and not just the slogans. But unfortunately in Pakistan there is no shadow cabinet system nor do they have their own think-tanks. As a result when they walk into the government their understanding of the problems, leave alone solutions, is rudimentary.
Now the challenge before the economic ministries of the government is to attract experts and work on long term policies. They have to prepare the country for a long drawn season of high food and fuel prices. And this is no easy task given the little elbow room in the budget. The need is to be innovative and radical if the poor of the country is really their priority.
Problem 2: This problem has been compounded because of the fear or miscalculation of the coalition partners. Senior partner PPP is either afraid that the restoration of the judges would bring a backlash from the President, or it is their opportunism which tells them to retain the amiable judges as they would be easy to deal with in the future. Junior partner PML (N) is clear on this issue but gives little importance to the fact that there are other external factors involved in this issue. Nor does it concede that while restoring the judges the validity of judgements given by any of them in the last few months have to be recognised. Otherwise another Pandora's Box would be opened.
The attempt by the PPP to bring some structural changes in the constitution by suggesting new measures in relation to the judge's appointment, alleviation and tenure issues, has further confounded the confusion. Some of the appointment committees suggested in the proposed amendments come into clash with the concept of separation of judiciary from executive. What PPP has to realise is that the lawyers and the civil society have not led the unprecedented movement for the restoration of the judges alone. It is indeed of a symbolic value. The real issue is to get the judiciary its rightful constitutional place in Pakistan, which the executive trespasses quite often.
Problem 3: Ever since President Musharraf ousted Nawaz Sharif's government he has been running the show from the Army House. The prime ministers we had were never given their constitutional powers. The tussle to get the prime minister and the parliament's powers back to the new government is no small task. Zardari says that he would introduce a number of amendments to whittle the President's powers.
But the question is: where is the two-third majority in the Senate to get such amendments passed? This means that the new government has to be patient till March 2009 when they will have the right numbers in the Senate. Other measures to put moral pressure on the President to quit have not been successful so far. Even the long-march did not impress the President and his minnows. With Bush willing Musharraf is not going to throw his gloves.
Problem 4: A good beginning has been made on the Balochistan issue and the signals coming from the ruling coalition are also positive. Akhtar Mengal has been released and efforts are being made to appease the angry Marri and Bugti leaders. But the real issue is to give control of natural resources of Balochistan to the provincial government.
At the same time a system should be evolved to share the benefit of oil and gas exploration and Gwadar with the local population of the area where they are situated. Provincial government alone cannot be trusted to pass on the benefits of royalty and other taxes to the backward areas which produce oil and gas. Much of the money is plundered by the corrupt politicians and bureaucrats while development projects and poor people suffer.
Problem 5: The new government has little say on the Afghan and India policy, which is not decided by the civilian government in Pakistan. There is growing pressure that the government should negotiate with the local Taliban. The progress so far has eased the occurrence of terrorist activities in Pakistan. But the real problem is that local Talibans are too committed with the Afghan Taliban. Their loyalty is elsewhere and not with the government of Pakistan.
Their insistence that they will continue to support the Jihad in Afghanistan against the NATO forces is dangerous for Pakistan. If the Pakistan army failed to tame them and make them accept the country's foreign policy of non-interference in Afghanistan, the NATO forces would pound our villages with bombs. Pakistan has no option in this case and the whole country's security and economy would be badly hurt. Those who want the government to respond rashly to NATO intrusions must realise that it is in reaction to the insurgency in Afghanistan, which is aided by their sympathisers in our tribal areas.
Keeping the geo-strategic position in view and the present domestic compulsions the new government cannot move far from the policy adopted by Musharraf for tribal areas. The advantage this government has is that it has people's support which it should mobilise and should not get carried away by the politicians who want to reverse it completely. Pakistan's future cannot be dictated by a few thousand militants.
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