A surge in Argentine soyabean exports is likely in July and cut US shipments, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday. But it added that another tax move by Buenos Aires has again hit Argentine shipments after the government repealed on July 18 a heavy tax rise on soya exports, opening the way to a return to unhindered exports after four months of farmers' disputes.
"We expect Argentine soyabean exports to increase sharply to around 2.0 million tonnes in July verses 1.05 million tonnes (in July) last year," it said. "China has become a key export destination for Argentine soyabeans recently." "The comparatively large South American soyabean exports will notably curb US soyabean shipments in July and August 2008."
It added: "Old crop supplies of US soyabeans may not be depleted as much as expected due to relief coming from South America." But it cautioned another Argentine government move to collect backdated export taxes has again damaged the country's exports.
"It had been hoped that Argentina would return in earnest to the world market after the government's sliding export tax scheme was brushed aside earlier this month," it said. But enthusiasm of Argentine exporters has been dampened again by the latest government announcement on backdated tax payments, it added. "The initial response of many Argentine exporters was to withdraw from the market," Oil World said.
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