The yuan rose slightly against the dollar on Thursday after the Chinese central bank set a high mid-point, but the market refrained from pushing the yuan up aggressively because of slides in other Asian currencies. Before trade began, the central bank set the yuan's daily mid-point against the dollar at 6.8400, down slightly from Monday's 6.8397 but stronger than the yuan's previous close of 6.8481.
The high mid-point may have been another signal that the central bank does not want the yuan to enter any strong downtrend against the dollar, which could prompt capital outflows. But with the won, the Indian rupee and other Asian currencies tumbling against the dollar on Tuesday, traders were reluctant to push the yuan up very far.
It stayed below the mid-point all day and closed at 6.8450 to the dollar, after touching a high of 6.8427 and a low of 6.8563. "Most dealers are wary of the strength of the dollar in the international markets and are reluctant to boost the yuan," said a trader with a major Hong Kong bank in Shanghai.
The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.62 percent on Tuesday, not far from the index's 20-month low. The central bank warned in a report earlier this month that it wanted to prevent large capital outflows, which could be caused by the combination of a soft currency and falling asset markets. One-year dollar/yuan non-deliverable forwards rose to 6.6880 from Monday's finish of 6.6515.
The NDFs' latest level implied yuan appreciation of 2.27 percent against the dollar over the next 12 months from the day's mid-point, down from 2.83 percent implied at Monday's close. The year's low for implied one-year yuan appreciation is 1.94 percent, hit early last week. NDFs subsequently broke their uptrend channel from mid-July, suggesting the market was not comfortable pushing implied appreciation below that level.
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