Another jolt to the economy

Troubles never come alone is a well known proverb. Together with a series of adverse economic developments comes the news that Pakistan's cotton output during 2008-09 is likely to be less than 12 million bales, falling substantially short of the target of 14.1 million bales.
Although no firm estimates are available for the new crop, this pessimistic scenario is confirmed by the officials of Food and Agriculture Ministry, farmers' representatives and other stakeholders. A fall in the area under cotton, pest attacks and shortage of fertilisers were the major factors that hit production in the 2008-09 crop year, which runs from April to March.
Ibrahim Mughal, Chairman of the Agri-Forum, a farmers' association, was of the view that rising production costs, because of higher prices of power, fuel and fertilisers, were also discouraging farmers from growing more cotton. The area under cotton cultivation was almost 500,000 acres less than the target of 8 million acres and mealy bug and cotton leaf curl virus continued to damage the crop.
It may be mentioned that Pakistan had achieved record cotton production of 14.6 million bales in 2004-05 but the output has been falling since then, meaning that the country had to import cotton every year to meet the requirements of its textile mills. As is well known, Pakistan's domestic consumption fluctuates between 14 million and 16 million bales a year and the country had to import nearly 4.7 million bales during 2007-08 after production fell to 11.6 million bales against the target of 14.14 million bales.
Missing the cotton crop target by more than 15 percent during 2008-09 would undoubtedly have serious consequences for the economy. Cotton is the most important non-food cash crop of the country and a significant source of foreign exchange earnings. It accounts for 7.5 percent of the value added in agriculture and about 1.6 percent of GDP and contributes 60 percent, directly and indirectly, to the country's exports.
Another important contribution of cotton is its potential in generating employment and promoting overall economic activity, both in the rural and urban areas of the country, due to backward and forward linkages of the textile sector. Also to be noted is the fact that crop shortfall has occurred at a time when it would be very hard for the country to import large quantities of cotton to meet its requirements due to paucity of foreign exchange.
Current account deficit of the country continues to be at an alarmingly high level, the rupee is depreciating fast and foreign exchange reserves of the country are touching dangerously low levels. Added pressure on the external sector is thus coming at a time when it is least able to bear it.
Obviously, there is nothing much that could be done for the present year, but keeping in view the crucial importance of the cotton crop in the economy of Pakistan, continuous shortfall in cotton production over the years is a phenomenon which needs to be seriously investigated with a view to creating an environment for better productivity in future.
Of course, lower cotton output could partly be attributable to the overall neglect of agricultural sector in the country, but there are certain other factors which have been equally responsible for poor yield of the crop and one fails to understand the callous attitude of the authorities to do something about them.
For instance, availability of adequate and insect specific pesticides, particularly for mealy bug and white fly, is not ensured throughout the growth and development period of the crop. Substandard or fake pesticides are still available in the market to compound the miseries of the farmers.
Provincial Agriculture Departments and extension services are not too effective to make a substantial difference. Availability of certified seeds of approved cotton varieties is often inadequate. In our view, no stone should be left unturned to redress the problems of cotton growers and ensure optimal yield of cotton crop in order to sustain the economy and improve the living conditions of the people.