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The sleepy Maldives, best known as a tropical luxury hideaway for Hollywood stars, holds its first multiparty elections this week in a vote that will see Asia's longest-serving ruler face real electoral competition.
This Wednesday's vote is a culmination of years of agitation for democratic reforms on the archipelago of 1,192 islands located 800 km (500 miles) off the southern tip of India.
After 30 years in power, President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, 71, will stand against five other candidates in what diplomats hope will be an example of a peaceful and fair democratic election in a Muslim majority nation.
Many critics say Gayoom has ruled the nation of 300,000 mostly Sunni Muslims like a sultan of old, which resulted in civil unrest in 2003 that prompted a heavy-handed crackdown but eventually spurred a host of democratic reforms.
With such a small population of voters - 209,000 - spread over 200 inhabited islands, the poll seems more like a vote for a city mayor than for a national leader. But for Maldivians used to Gayoom's way of ruling, the stakes are high.
"I feel very anxious about the elections. It's as if we're deciding who should be king? I don't think Maumoon is our king any more," security guard Aarisha Ibrahim, 25, said.
Ceding to years of pressure, Gayoom in August signed a new constitution into effect which established an independent electoral commission and judiciary, and changed the law so that the president could not hold extensive business interests. It also abolished the old style of voting for president, where a parliament-approved candidate stood for a referendum. Those elections saw him returned to power six times with what he said was over 90 percent of the vote.
Many Maldivians complain that a small political elite has grown rich from tourism - which is the linchpin of the $850 million economy, accounting for 28 percent of GDP.
"This country is run like a kingdom. It benefits the few," diving instructor Ali Shareef said. "We have no option to increase our business, because there's nowhere to get a loan - all the credit goes to the big resort owners." With those stakes, there is scepticism the poll will be fair.
"It will be rigged so the president will win. When someone has been in power for 30 years what do you expect? I'd probably be the same in his position," businessman Abdul Rasheed, 49, said.
STRONGEST ENTRANT:
Already, there have been threats and an unsuccessful attempt to attack the vice president of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), the main opposition.
A Western diplomat who will observe the polls said he expected some rigging, in the form of bribery or coercion by atoll chiefs, powerful local leaders appointed by the president. "But the question for us is will it be a credible election. It would set a great example if a Muslim-majority nation held a credible, free and fair poll, especially in this region," the diplomat said on condition of anonymity.
Most expect no candidate to secure 50 percent of the vote initially, which would prompt a runoff round at a later date yet to be decided.
Though there are few credible opinion polls, most see MDP candidate Mohamed Nasheed, known as Ani, as the strongest entrant. One of Gayoom's longest-standing critics, Nasheed has been charged dozens of times in what rights groups have said are trumped-up cases including one which was dropped last month after prosecutors admitted to a lack of evidence.
Also seen in the running is wealthy businessman Gasim Ibrahim, a former finance minister running for the new Republican party, who has pledged to drop his business interests if elected.

Copyright Reuters, 2008

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