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Seoul shares closed at their lowest in three years on Friday capping a roller-coaster five days in which they soared on relief over last weekend's global financial rescue plans only to crash late in the week on recession fears. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index ended down 2.73 percent to 1,180.67 points, its lowest close since late October 2005, bringing losses on the week to 4.9 percent and extending last week's 12.6 percent slide.
Seoul's main index has fallen 21 percent since late September and could go worse before it bounces convincingly, analysts say. "We see the immediate bottom at 1,000. This is the KOSPI's ten-year moving average since the IMF crisis (1997 Asian currency crisis)," said Y.S. Rhoo, a market analyst at Hyundai Sec. Concerns deepened that South Korea's banks, threatened by dollar shortages as the won currency flails on foreign exchanges, could face yet more pain from bad loans as recession bites, pulling the rug from under the main index, dealers said.
Underlining the uncertainty around the South Korean economy Morgan Stanley cut Korean shares to underweight from equal weight, saying it does not appear to have the strength to offset an export downturn and appears more troubled than Taiwan.
"Even more importantly, the banking sector in Korea is proving more vulnerable than key North Asian peers (China and Taiwan) to the credit crunch due to its reliance on interbank fundings," Morgan Stanley said in its report. Confirming South Korea's perceived vulnerability to global economic downturn, its share market stayed deep in the red Friday while Tokyo's and Hong Kong's showed gains or smaller losses. Construction shares also tumbled across the board, with Hyundai Engineering & Construction ending down 5.53 percent and Samsung Engineering down 3.86 percent.
But shares ian POSCO outperformed against the broader market, gaining 0.17 percent, as investors welcomed news that the world's No 4 steelmaker failed to make it to the final round of a contest for a controlling stake in Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering. Korean Air Line climbed 2.7 percent and Asiana Airlines inched up 3.14 percent.
Foreign investors sold a net 495.4 billion won worth of shares and institutions sold a net 102 billion won worth of shares. Retail investors bought a net 583 billion won. Decliners outnumbered advancers by 482 to 356, with 62 titles ending flat.
Trade volume stood at 412 million shares worth 6.4 trillion won compared with 409 million shares worth 6.2 trillion won on Thursday. The KOSPI 200 December futures index lost 1.10 points to 156.40 and the KOSPI 200 spot index shed 4.57 points to 153.06. The junior Kosdaq fell 0.63 percent to 352.18 points.

Copyright Reuters, 2008

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