Commodity prices saw mixed fortunes this week, with crude oil falling in value and metals switching between losses and gains on world markets as recession fears intensified.
The US unemployment rate rose to its highest level since 1994 in October as it touched 6.5 percent, official data showed Friday, while analysts forecast it to increase further in Barack Obama's first year as president. Meanwhile the economy of the 15 nations sharing the euro will "very probably" be in recession next year, the chairman of the eurozone finance ministers, Jean-Claude Juncker, said on Friday.
On Thursday the Bank of England slashed British borrowing costs by a massive 1.5 percentage points to 3.0 percent, a sign that Britain was set for a deep recession of its own, according to economists.
OIL: Oil prices slumped to 21-month low points below 60 dollars a barrel on prospects of sliding energy demand because of a global economic slowdown, traders said.
"Demand is starting to wane quite considerably," Robert Montesfusco at Sucden brokers told AFP. "We are not seeing any good demand," he added. Fears of the sharp global downturn have intensified after the International Monetary Fund on Thursday warned that advanced economies would contract in 2009 for the first time since World War II.
It also predicted that in 2030 the price would stand at just above 200 dollars, which after adjustment for projected inflation, was equivalent to more than 120 dollars in real dollar values. The agency said the figures represented a major adjustment from its forecasts last year after a review of the outlook for production costs and demand.
A decline in oil prices meanwhile gained momentum on Wednesday after US figures showed US gasoline (petrol) stockpiles had jumped 1.1 million barrels last week, confounding market expectations for a drop of 600,000 barrels. Crude reserves held steady, instead of rising the 1.2 million barrels forecast by analysts.
US energy demand continued to decline as Americans consumed 6.7 percent less crude in the past four weeks compared with the same period a year ago, the government data showed. On London's InterContinental Exchange (ICE), Brent North Sea crude for December slipped to 58.80 dollars a barrel from 62.07 dollars.
PRECIOUS METALS: Gold led precious metals higher as it benefited from dollar weakness. A weak US currency stimulates demand for dollar-priced commodities because they become cheaper for investors holding stronger currencies. On the London Bullion Market, gold rose to 735.25 dollars an ounce at Friday's late fixing from 730.75 dollars a week earlier.
Silver gained to 10.41 dollars an ounce from 9.28 dollars. On the London Platinum and Palladium Market, platinum advanced to 849 dollars an ounce at the late fixing on Friday from 814 dollars a week earlier. Palladium increased to 227 dollars an ounce from 198 dollars.
BASE METALS: Most base metals prices declined. "Volatility will remain a feature in the coming months as the market remains nervous," said BaseMetals.com analyst William Adams. By Friday, copper for delivery in three months fell to 3,785 dollars per tonne on the London Metal Exchange from 3,890 dollars a week earlier.
Three-month aluminium dropped to 1,990 dollars per tonne from 2,008 dollars.
Three-month lead slid to 1,400 dollars per tonne from 1,431 dollars.
Three-month zinc slipped to 1,109 dollars per tonne from 1,130 dollars.
Three-month tin rose to 14,812 dollars per tonne from 14,650 dollars.
Three-month nickel decreased to 11,200 dollars per tonne from 11,249 dollars.
COCOA: Cocoa futures headed lower once more after a rally the week before. "Economic concerns came into play," said Sucden analyst Ralph Hawes. "It seems likely that the downtrend is going to re-assert itself and certainly the market appears to have no real appetite for a sustained rally." By Friday on Liffe, London's futures exchange, the price of cocoa for delivery in March fell to 1,270 pounds per tonne from 1,331 pounds a week earlier. On the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT), the December cocoa contract dropped to 1,946 dollars per tonne from 2,071 dollars.
COFFEE: Coffee prices rose in London and fell in New York. By Friday on Liffe, Robusta for delivery in January gained to 1,739 dollars per tonne from 1,616 dollars a week earlier. On the NYBOT, Arabica for December slipped to 112.45 US cents per pound from 112.75 cents.
SUGAR: Sugar prices extended gains. By Friday on Liffe, the price per tonne of white sugar for delivery in December rose to 339.80 pounds from 337.80 pounds the previous week. On NYBOT, the price of unrefined sugar for March increased to 12.21 US cents per pound from 11.88 cents.
GRAINS AND SOYA: Grains and soya prices dropped. "We are near a bottom" for prices said Allendale analyst Joe Victor. By Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade, maize for delivery in December slid to 3.84 dollars per bushel from 4.02 dollars the previous week. January-dated soyabean meal - used in animal feed - retreated to 9.18 dollars from 9.33 dollars. Wheat for December fell to 5.24 dollars per bushel from 5.36 dollars.
RUBBER: Malaysian rubber prices built on gains won the previous week after the world's top producers - Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia - plan production cuts to help boost falling prices. On Friday, the Malaysian Rubber Board's benchmark SMR20 rose to 178.20 US cents per kilo from 175.25 US cents per kilo a week earlier.
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