US aerospace giant Boeing forecasted on November 04 that global air cargo traffic would grow 5.8 percent annually over the next two decades, tripling an industry that has proved resilient to economic shocks.
"Air cargo traffic will grow over the long term despite current near-term market weakness and world-wide economic uncertainty," Boeing said, noting that the industry had shown strong recoveries from previous economic downturns. "We've seen market contraction during the middle of this year for the first time since late 2003; however, history tells us that the air cargo market returns robustly when the economy strengthens," Jim Edgar, regional director of marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said in the statement.
The US company cited the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s, the September 11, 2001 terror attacks in the United States, and the pneumonia-like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak that killed almost 800 people in 32 countries in 2002-2003.
"Air cargo remains crucial to globalisation," said Edgar, who also contributed to the company's biennial forecast, released at the International Air Cargo Forum and Exhibition 2008 in Kuala Lumpur. Boeing predicted that air cargo traffic will have tripled by 2027, underpinned by long-term economic growth, freighter fleet renewal and moderating fuel prices.
According to the Boeing estimates, the global economy will grow "just higher" than 3.0 percent on average over the next 20 years, said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "Asian production fundamentals - including abundant raw materials and low-cost labour - remain solid, and China will remain a source of strong economic growth with substantial industrialisation and related investment," Tinseth said.
The Asian air cargo market growth was expected to continue to lead all global traffic routes, with domestic Chinese and intra-Asian markets expanding by 9.9 percent and 8.1 percent per year, respectively.
Between 2007 and 2007, Boeing predicted the world-wide freighter fleet would grow to 3,890 aircraft from 1,950. The biggest cargo planes, such as the Boeing 747 and
777, would account for 35 percent of the total fleet, compared with 26 percent currently, and transport 74 percent of the world's freight. Boeing forecast that more than 75 percent of the 3,360 freighters joining the fleet - 2,500 airplanes - would come from passenger-to-freighter modifications as the industry grows.
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