Come on, it’s time to go

It’s not the crime; it’s the cover-up. Indeed. The House of Sharif should have known better. The Panama JIT – or “a few good men,” as an economist put it – has damaged the Sharif aura. What will likely bring the house down is not the lack of money trail for the London apartments – the JIT also came up short on that count – but the alleged misstatements, forgeries, and living beyond means.

It has been fifteen months since the Panama Papers came out. Nawaz Sharif, a master of political comeback, has since watched his political star fade from a distance. The “wait-and-see” MO remains intact. But the holdout should be brief. On Monday, July 17, the apex court will reportedly take up the fact-finding report. Meanwhile, the premier’s moral authority stands eroded. His party is torn on the way forward.

As days of indecision go by, Nawaz is fast marching towards the margins. But he faces a no-win choice. He could ignore the political upheaval around him, stay on, and fight the legal battle to the end. This approach may rouse the political base. But it is untenable. Besides a long-winding criminal trial, a prospect of immediate disqualification under articles 62/63 also lurks in the shadow.

Or he could resign now, relocate to Raiwind, fight his legal problems, and try to score politically over real and imagined opponents. That might save him the ignominy of an involuntary exit from the highest elected office on the land. But perhaps the ruling camp still feels that a resignation would be admitting guilt. A political death by a thousand cuts seems preferable. The messiness will further divide the country.

Remarkably, the loyal brother in the clan has come out unharmed in this tumult. With the future of Nawaz and his progeny under a cloud, is it time for the Punjab CM to finally claim what is his rightful turn? Shahbaz is popular in Punjab. The PML-N’s aura of competence in Punjab owes mostly to his management style and infrastructure projects. Also, he doesn’t seem to alienate permanent state.

But Shahbaz will have a tough act to follow. He must defend his brother, but do so from a noticeable political distance. Punjab’s trader and industrial classes, which are mostly family businesses, value brotherly unity. Shahbaz cannot be seen too eager. He has a solid history of not ditching Nawaz despite influential prodding. Still, he must carefully choose whether to step in now or wait until the 2018 elections. Come election time, the clamor among the PML-N ranks is likely to grow, rolling out a red carpet for him.

Nawaz has an able successor ready – it’s just not the one he thought he’d be handing over to, and so soon. Meanwhile, his party walks alone. PPP and PTI want the PM’s resignation even more. Come Monday, the PM’s legal authority to hold on may take an irrevocable hit.

With their backs to the wall, taking to the streets won’t be an option for PML-N this time. The party’s traditional support base is not into mass agitations. And who must they rally against? In Panama Papers, there is no clear enemy. And unlike the 2009 judicial long march, there is no popular cause to support now. Also, the PML-N is in power, not in opposition. It’s pretty much them against the world right now.

In hindsight, Nawaz waited far too long, and lost control of the narrative. But in fairness, no one could tell the hammer would fall like this. It’s time for Nawaz to go. He needs to focus on getting himself vindicated first. The country needs daylight between his person and the high office while a trial likely gets underway. It will be a sad way to go for a third-time PM. But he has been there before. The country needs to move on, with the hope that accountability will not remain limited to just elected politicians.