US crude oil ended 2008 up 14 percent a barrel in thin pre-holiday trade on Wednesday, tracking a jump in gasoline as a slowdown in domestic refinery activity sparked fears of tightening fuel supply this winter. US crude oil futures for February settled up $5.57 to $44.60 per barrel, but down 54 percent from the $95.98 on the last day in 2007. London Brent settled up $5.44 at $45.59.
This year saw the record high prices in July above $147 a barrel crash to the year low of $32.40 on December 19 as the global recession dissolved world demand. Weekly US inventory data on Wednesday showed a decline in refinery activity and a 500,000 barrel rise in crude stocks, compared with forecasts for a 1.5 million barrel decrease.
"There's a sign that the industry might be cutting back on production rates to try to boost margins. As heating oil and gasoline prices are rallying, crude is tagging along," said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy Stamford, Connecticut. "The market is trading in pretty thin volume ahead of tomorrow's holiday and I think that's contributing to some of the strength," he added.
Inventories of refined products also rose, though less than analysts had expected. Gasoline stockpiles increased by 800,000 barrels, less than forecasts for a 1.5 million barrel build, while distillates rose by 700,000 barrels, below expectations for a 1.1 million barrel increase.
Demand for both gasoline and distillates, which include heating oil, was lower than the same time a year ago, extending the trend for reduced consumption. Markets also were watching a dispute over gas supplies between Russia and Ukraine, which may have to buy distillates from Europe if gas supplies from Russia are halted.
Russia's gas export monopoly Gazprom said on Wednesday that talks with Ukraine over gas prices for 2009 have failed, making a cut-off of gas to Ukraine on January 1 unavoidable. "Thrown in with everything else, the Russian threat of a gas cut-off has everyone a bit nervous ahead of the close," said Tom Knight, trader with Truman Arnold in Texarkana, Texas.
Analysts forecast an average of $49 a barrel for US crude in the first quarter, and an average of $58.48 for next year, down $14 from their previous forecasts, the latest Reuters poll showed. Faced with slumping demand and prices, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) this month said it was cutting output 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), its deepest reduction ever.
Evidence is mounting that Opec is complying with its goal to reduce production, led by top exporter Saudi Arabia. Market sources said on Tuesday the kingdom's supplies to long-term buyers in February could imply production of even less than its new Opec production target.
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