Bruised and battered at the start of 2009, Wall Street looks ahead to the inauguration of Barack Obama as president with hopes the new administration can tackle the global economic crisis. The markets, which open trade on inauguration day Tuesday after the Martin Luther King holiday Monday, will see a light week for economic data but potentially market-moving earnings.
The earnings reports will be the latest to show the horrific impact of the economic slump on the health of the corporate sector, but the change at the White House will be the focal point, say analysts.
"The economic data will take a rare back seat early next week, as eyes turn to the political sea change stateside," said Peter Buchanan, economist at CIBC World Markets. "Obama's inauguration comes at a time of renewed conviction that governments must incur sizeable fiscal deficits for the time being, to get the world's troubled economies moving again."
Some say the mere fact of change at the White House will be positive. "No matter how one feels about President (George W.) Bush, most Americans are pleased to see him go and Obama to arrive," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist at Wachovia Securities. "This could provide an emotional uplift."
The market will be eager for any news to help lift it out of its funk, following a rocky week.
Stocks were roiled by news of dismal retail sales, more heavy losses in the banking sector and price declines that suggest a potentially dangerous period of deflation. In the week to Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 8.34 percent to end at 8,281.22. The technology-heavy Nasdaq shed 2.69 percent to 1,529.33 over the week and the broad-market Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 4.52 percent to 850.12.
While Obama's inauguration as 44th president may lift spirits, some analysts argue that it will do little in the near-term to help the market or the economy. "The inauguration is coming up soon and it can't come soon enough for those who believe that once we change administrations, pump in a few dollars through a stimulus package, poof, all our problems will go away," said Kevin Giddis, analyst at Morgan Keegan.
"Wake up, Alice. Wonderland is the other direction." But Joel Naroff at Naroff Economic Advisors said the nation's economic woes are at least in part because of depressed sentiment among both consumers and businesses, which could get a lift from a change at the White House.
"I believe confidence is a critical factor in turning the panic and depression around," said Naroff. In the upcoming week, the Obama inauguration will be the key as markets will look to how the new president addresses the economic challenges.
"This historic inauguration will launch a major new direction in the conduct of executive policy on both domestic and international issues," said Nigel Gault and Brian Bethune, economists at IHS Global Insight, in a research note. "Given the gravity of the domestic economic crisis - and the global recession - the inaugural takes on a symbolic importance on aspirations for the future not seen since the inauguration of Ronald Reagan in 1981."
Also on tap will be earnings reports from key firms including Microsoft, Google and General Electric, which should highlight the challenges facing key companies. "Investors are still selling the stocks of companies that dramatically miss analysts' estimates but are tolerating those that deliver earnings that are in line with estimates reflecting dramatically lowered guidance from the company," said Fred Dickson at DA Davidson & Co.
"The real test will be how the market reacts to disturbing guidance relative to current quarter revenues and earnings."
The bond market gained on the rush away from equities. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell to 2.304 percent from 2.407 percent a week earlier, while the that on the 30-year Treasury dropped to 2.894 percent against 3.055 percent. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
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