Deep in the red for the first two months of 2009, Wall Street enters March with frayed nerves in anticipation of more weak data as investors look for any signs of an end to the horrific economic slump.
With some indexes at 12-year lows, the market remains cautious about the economic outlook, despite reassuring comments in the past week from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke suggesting the worst crisis in decades could ease this year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average of 20 blue chips slid 4.1 percent to end on Friday at 7,062.93, its lowest level since 1997. The broad-market Standard & Poor's 500 sank to its lowest close since December 1996, losing 4.5 percent to 735.09.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite fell 4.4 percent over the week to 1,377.84, near its lows from last November. With a bear market in full force, the Dow has dropped 19.52 percent so far this year after a slide of over 11 percent for February. The S&P is off 18.62 percent in the year and the Nasdaq down 12.63 percent.
Al Goldman at Wachovia Securities acknowledged that he was wrong in suggesting the market had established a low point in November but still held out hope for a rebound soon. "In hindsight, our timing may have been too optimistic; the bottoming out for the bear could start somewhat lower," he said.
"However, history shows that the economy and the stock market will recover."
The market got a brief lift early in the week after Bernanke suggested the recession could end in 2009 - but added that this was contingent on a series of rescues and stimulus efforts working as intended. Investors had to cope with more grim economic news including a downward revision showing a stunning 6.2 percent annualised drop in fourth quarter economic activity, highlighting a deepening recession.
A government plan to boost its stake in troubled banking giant Citigroup to as much as 36 percent through a stock conversion also roiled the market and sparked further debate over whether the move was an effective nationalisation. Sal Guatieri at BMO Capital Markets said it was unclear whether this type of action, which could be extended to other banks, would revive them or simply keep them alive as "zombie" banks. "An ongoing concern is that the toxic assets held by 'zombie' banks on government life-support could continue to bleed value from the illiquid assets held by still-healthy banks," he said.
The coming week could bring more bad news, with February auto sales expected to be weak and a payrolls survey expected to show further massive job losses - perhaps as many as 600,000, according to some analysts.
Yet some analysts say the stock market is "oversold," having already discounted the worst economic scenario. Gregory Drahuschak at Janney Montgomery Scott said he remains cautious.
"The biggest positive for the market presently is its deeply oversold condition," he said. "On its own, this could be enough to spawn a move in the major averages of 10 to 15 percent from current levels. This, however, is far from assured which is why we would not suggest positioning any portfolio aggressively."
Bob Dickey, a technical strategist at RBC Wealth Management, said he believes a rebound is likely. "Coming from a deeply oversold condition, but one that was not as bad as October or November, the market is once again poised for at least a bounce or rally from current levels," he said
"At this late stage in the bottoming process, we would warn against trying to play the market from an overly defensive or bearish position. Although it may be easy to be pessimistic in the current news environment, it's the 'following the masses' that can get you into trouble, as it has done before." Linda Duessel at Federated Investors said the administration of President Barack Obama is moving quickly to revive the ailing US economy but it will take time for various stimulus measures to have any effect. "What is needed now is the government's success in convincing Americans that its bold plans can work," she said.
"Beyond that, the economy needs to find its way to recovery by adding up the baby steps which we search diligently for every week." Bonds failed to provide the safe haven investors were seeking and ended lower in the week. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose to 3.041 percent from 2.772 percent a week earlier and that on the 30-year bond increased to 3.722 percent against 3.565 percent. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
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