Obamas offer

US President Barack Obama has made Russia an interesting offer in a secret letter he sent his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, three weeks ago. It is about George W Bushs plans to expand its embryonic missile defence shield to Poland and the Czech Republic. Obama has said that the US would refrain from expanding its missiles shield to Eastern Europe if Russia joins hands with it in dealing with the threat, he iterated, Irans nuclear programme poses to the US as well as Europes security.
No one really believes that the deployment of the missile system so close to Russias western borders is meant to counter Irans or North Koreas threat. Soon after the end of the Cold War, and long before Iran started actively pursuing its alleged nuclear ambitions and a missile programme, Natos eastward expansion had begun ringing alarm bells in Moscow.
Russia was not pleased either with the pro-US political changes in its near abroad that began with the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, followed by the Rose Revolution in Georgia and then the Yellow Revolution in Belarus. George Bush left little doubt about US intentions vis-a-vis Russia, when last year Georgian President Mikeil Saakashvili, with known American links, provoked a confrontation with Russia over South Ossetia.
Resorting to his trademark bullying, he accused Russia of a "brutal" escalation, demanding an immediate cease-fire and Russian troop withdrawal from the country. Moscow, of course, took its time to withdraw, but the confrontation must have taught it a lesson or two about the perils of ignoring US plans to install missiles in Poland and the Czech Republic. From the Russian perspective one positive aspect of Obamas overture is that the US is at least willing to talk about abandoning its plans of missile shield in Eastern Europe.
The attempt to form a wider front against Iran is unlikely to succeed, especially in view of reports that the offer is conditional not only on Russias willingness to help but its demonstrated ability to achieve success. That is unlikely to sit well either with Russias self-image or its international standing.
Besides, even though Russia has been helping Iran in different areas, including development of a peaceful nuclear programme, thanks to George Bushs disastrous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and all-out support for Israels unmitigated aggression against the Palestinian people in occupied territories and Hizbollah in Lebanon, Iran has emerged as a major regional player. It is not expected to allow itself to be persuaded by friend or foe to give up its present course, except a change in the regional balance of power.
If the US and its European allies think they are correct in concluding that Irans nuclear programme is aimed at building nuclear weapons, they also need to recognise the reason behind it. The fact of the matter is that Iran as well as its Arab neighbours are worried about the threat Israel presents them with its history of wars of aggression against its neighbours. Israel is known to possess more than 200 nuclear weapons.
The new US President must take into account this clear and present threat to regional security while seeking to stop Iran from developing its nuclear and missile programmes. Instead of asking Russia to use its power of persuasion or coercion with Iran in exchange for scrapping of US missile system in Eastern Europe, he should work towards denuclearisation of the Middle East. That is the only way of convincing Iran to discard its alleged nuclear weapons programme.