If the United States is to succeed in Afghanistan, it is going to have to engage in dialogue with Taliban-led insurgents, according to many analysts with close knowledge of the region. But in doing so, it will have to juggle the competing interests of India and Pakistan, both of which have a stake in any eventual political settlement in Afghanistan.
The United States, which is due to announce a new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan shortly, has suggested it could reach out to insurgents to see if some can be peeled away from a hard-line core linked to al Qaeda. Vice President Joe Biden said this month that he believed only five percent of the Taliban were "incorrigible". "I do think it is worth engaging and determining whether or not there are those who are willing to participate in a secure and stable Afghanistan," he told a news conference in Brussels. But India has been wary of any political accommodation with the Taliban, which were close allies of Pakistan before they were toppled by the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.
It long accused Pakistan of using links to Afghan militants to fuel an insurgency in Indian Kashmir, and of seeking to dominate Afghanistan to provide "strategic depth" - effectively giving its army space to operate in the event of war with India. Pakistan in turn has resented growing Indian influence in Afghanistan, which it sees as an attempt by its much larger neighbour to put pressure on it from both east and west.
Indian analysts say India has no reason to oppose outright any political settlement with Afghan insurgents, who are dominated by the Pashtun ethnic group whose influence was undercut by the fall of the Pashtun Taliban in 2001. "Engaging the Taliban is necessary," said retired Indian diplomat M. K. Bhadrakumar. He noted Indians had good relations with the Pashtuns dating back to pre-independence days but blamed Pakistan for having encouraged Islamist fervour in Afghanistan to build a common bond of religion across both countries.
Pakistani analysts, however, say Indian suspicions that Pakistan, particularly the powerful Pakistan Army, continues to support militancy to maintain its influence on Afghanistan are outdated. Indeed they say Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Kayani has redefined strategic depth as coming not from Afghanistan, but from a stronger economy and stable Pakistan.
"They are probably going to stay away from the religion thing," said Shuja Nawaz, Director of the South Asia Centre at The Atlantic Council of the United States. "Kayani knows how unreliable these are."
"He really wants Pakistan to succeed in international terms, economically, first, then socially," said defence analyst Brian Cloughley.
Engaging in talks with the Afghan Taliban would have a sobering impact on the Pakistani Taliban, said Asif Durrani, Pakistans Deputy High Commissioner in London.
"This is not going to work out smoothly. In each step there are going to be complications," said C. Raja Mohan, Professor of South Asia Studies at Singapores Nanyang Technology University.
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