Qantas heads towards first second-half loss in six years

Qantas Airways Ltd forecast on Tuesday its first second-half loss in six years and unveiled capacity and job cuts as Australia's biggest airline battles a slump in passenger demand and rising competition. Qantas, which like many other airlines is suffering from the global economic downturn, also said its full-year pre-tax profit may be down as much as 80 percent from a previous estimate.
The surprise announcement pushed its shares down 11 percent early, but they rebounded to rise 2 percent in a firm overall market. "People see the worst is over for at least the fiscal 2009 year and at this stage they can't possibly disappoint on that revised guidance," said Brian Han, an investment analyst at Australian fund manager Constellation Capital Management.
Many airlines, world-wide, have announced job cuts to reduce costs, with British Airways BA predicting last month it was heading towards a second year of operating losses and announcing further job cuts. Singapore Airlines, the world's second-largest airline by market value, posted a 43 percent drop in quarterly profit in February and flagged further potential scale back of flights and capacity reductions to cope with the downturn.
"We have faced accelerated declines in passenger demand and revenue while market competition has intensified," Qantas Chief Executive Alan Joyce said in a statement. The airline now expects profit before tax of between A$100-200 million ($73-146 million) for the year ending on June 30, down from around A$500 million it had forecast in November.
It cited a "rapid and significant" deterioration of trading conditions in the past few weeks. In the first half ended December 31, Qantas reported a profit before tax of A$288 million. That would mean it is expecting a pre-tax loss of as much as A$188 million in the second half.
Qantas confirmed it was expecting a second-half pre-tax loss. Ratings agency Standard & Poor's cut its corporate credit ratings on Qantas to 'BBB/A-3' from 'BBB+/A-2'. "The downgrade reflects our view that Qantas' financial profile will come under significant pressure from the significant deterioration of trading conditions in the airline industry," S&P said in a statement.
Qantas's five-year credit default swaps, which offer protection against defaults on debt, were quoted in thin trade at around 240 basis points on Tuesday, largely unchanged from previous levels, according to traders. World airlines are set to lose $4.7 billion this year as a result of the global downturn that has shrunk passenger and cargo demand, industry body The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimated at the end of March.