Nawaz is neither dumb nor he lacks courage. He is still calling the shots both within the family and party. The plan of Shahbaz and Nisar does not seem to be working; the former is likely to stay in Punjab till elections while the latter is out of the huge cabinet where virtually every fourth PMLN MNA has a portfolio.
The elder Sharif has rewarded everyone for the loyalty and fighting for his highness. The idea is to not let the members sway away if push comes to shove for Nawaz as soon cases against him and family will be tried in accountability court. The thought behind the formation of extra large size cabinet appears to make it last till elections, not forty five days.
Be that as it may, the pendulum has swung in favour of Nawaz. The question is how the proceedings at accountability court go. If the cases get lingered on as it had happened numerous times in the seventy years history of the country, Nawaz has nailed it. The policies will continue, the infrastructure projects will be executed at full swing, and PMLN will secure majority in senate to cement party legislative powers irrespective of 2018 elections results.
This is good for the economy as growth momentum is hinged upon confidence, and the GDP may grow by 6 percent in FY18 with subdued inflation. Balance of payment crisis would loom but Dar and company would be able to fetch debt from multi-laterals and China to avert any crisis till elections. The stock market may rebound and private sector expansion may continue.
However, the reality could be uglier as Nawaz is no mood to bow in front of establishment. He is in a fighting mode -it’s either his way or the highway. The PMLN leader, at the time of writing, is planning to come by GT road to Lahore to exhibit popularity.
The formation of cabinet is also showing that he at least wants to send some signals, if not confrontation. Khawaja Asif in the foreign ministry may not be liked by everyone. The likes of Talal Chaudery and Daniyal Aziz have been rewarded for their relentless defence and attack on the JIT and judiciary.
The fear is that if anytime Nawaz is close to conviction, he might come on road to fight for his career. Not to mention, Dar may also be in hot waters. If Nawaz feels that his and his immediate family’s political careers are at stake, he would care less for economic recovery and would go in confrontation to remain politically alive.
The bottom-line is that economic revival will be compromised if Nawaz fights. Let’s see how the younger Sharif reacts to the situation as his dream of his premiership and his son’s CM-ship at the same time, appear highly unlikely to come true.
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