Rains to cut Brazil's 2008-09 Bahia cotton crop

Output from Brazil's No 2 cotton producing state, Bahia, could fall by as much as 20 percent 2008/09 from initial forecasts due to excessive rains in recent weeks, a farmers' association said on Monday. Heavy rains should also delay the beginning of the harvest. It usually starts in late May or early June.
"We'll likely have a 15 to 20 percent drop in yields and for sure a 20-day delay in harvesting," said the president of Bahia's Association of Cotton Farmers, Joao Carlos Jacobsen.
Output will likely total 400,000 tonnes, down from 480,000 tonnes in 2007/08, he said. The figure is also below the 449,000 tonnes forecast by Brazil's crop forecast agency, Conab, earlier this month. Soy yields have also been hit by excessive rain. Around 30 percent of the soy crop has yet to be harvested in Bahia, whose soy production is estimated at 2.5 million tonnes by Conab.
Jacobsen sees a 20 percent drop in soy yields, but losses could spread to other states in Brazil's north and north-eastern states, regions that have received above the average rainfall since April. Floods have killed more than 40 and left thousands homeless in the region.
"In the states of Piaui, Maranhao, Ceara and western Bahia there is no doubt excessive rain will cause (soy crop) losses," said Somar meteorologist Celso Oliveira. April and May usually are not rainy months in the region.
"Losses for cotton in Bahia could be significant and, although most of the soy has been harvested, there is some in trucks that is stuck on (flooded) roads," Oliveira said. Weather in the south of Brazil, which has been drier than normal, however, has improved, with some areas having received good amounts of rain on the weekend, the meteorologist said.
Showers are also forecast from Tuesday in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina states. "The pattern is clearly changing this week with the arrival of a strong cold front," Oliveira said, adding that low temperatures now could harm the development of Parana's winter corn crop. Widespread rains are also expected later this week over Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais, top cane producing states.