South Korea said on Wednesday that job losses fell slightly in April after record fiscal spending, but analysts said unemployment is likely to worsen until companies start investing again. Policymakers have pledged to continue stimulus measures, saying it is too early to call an end to the economic downturn despite recent relatively positive data and waiting for much stronger signs that the economy can start powering itself.
Analysts warned that job losses could rise again in coming months, especially if lawmakers reject a government proposal to double to four years the period contract workers can be employed before they have to be put on staff or sacked. "We may see massive layoffs in July if the law revision proposal fails to pass parliament," said Sohn Min-jung, an analyst at Samsung Economic Research Institute.
"The nation's jobs market will see a meaningful recovery only when business conditions for most companies turn far better. This could happen as early as in the fourth quarter," he added. South Korea shed 188,000 jobs in April over a year earlier, less than the 195,000 in March which was the biggest fall in a decade, data showed on Wednesday.
But analysts pointed out the number is still significant when taking into account that there are also some 600,000 new entrants into the job market each year. The nation's unemployment rate held steady at a seasonally adjusted 3.7 percent in April from March, the highest level since October 2005, the National Statistical Office data showed.
The Bank of Korea expects the annual jobless rate to rise to 3.6 percent this year from last year's 3.2 percent with GDP likely to contract 2.4 percent in 2009. The central bank predicted 130,000 job losses for this year while the finance ministry warned as many as 200,000 jobs may disappear due to the economic slump.
"The government-led job creation programmes helped a little bit but job market conditions will remain very weak well into the third quarter," said June Park, an economist at Woori Investment & Securities. The government has put up a roughly $50 billion stimulus package, including tax cuts, while the central bank slashed interest rates by a total of 3.25 percentage points from October to February in its unprecedented easing campaign.
President Lee Myung-bak called for more efforts to create jobs as the fallout of the economic crisis could last for another year. "The government will continue policy measures to create even one or two jobs," Lee was quoted by a local newspaper as telling business executives during a visit to Kazahstan.
The finance minister also pledged to stick with measures to stimulate the economy. "(A) stimulative macroeconomic policy stance should be maintained until the economy gains self-growth momentum," Yoon Jeung-hyun told a meeting with analysts and policy makers.
His comments came a day after the central bank held rates steady at record-low 2.00 percent for a third straight month following six reductions, and signalled that it would keep the rates low enough to support the economy for the foreseeable future.
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